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Sharing some anvil info

This is a discussion on Sharing some anvil info within the Game Questions & Tips forums, part of the Knight Online (ko4life.com) category; some background: i have never understood people who try to burn shitloads of items before upgrading something important, but as ...
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  1. #1
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    Default Sharing some anvil info

    some background: i have never understood people who try to burn shitloads of items before upgrading something important, but as so many ppl do it, i thought why not check it out, if its true, maybe it can be used to make some extra money off the anvil.

    in theory, any toss of a coin is not affected by the ones who preceeded it. for instance, if i toss a coin 100 times, and the first 99 times i get heads, the 100th time i toss the coin still has 50/50 chance of heads/tails. now the anvil is no ordinary coin toss, but the same principles of statistics still apply (including the above law of indepedency between two random occurences).

    to test this, i have made alot of high class upgrades which i kept track of to figure out if there is any dependency between one upgrade and the next. here are my findings:

    success rate of upgrading high class items from +2 to +3 with high class upgrade scroll is: 60% (60 out of 100 items went from +2 to +3 and 40 burned).

    success rate after a failed upgrade of high class items from +2 to +3 with high class upgrade scroll is: 65% - 26 out of 40 items went from +2 to +3.


    success rate after a successful upgrade of high class items from +2 to +3 with high class upgrade scroll is: 60% (stays the same) - 36 out of 60 went from +2 to +3.

    i made about 100 upgrades overall so to make this data as accurate as possible.
    the upgrades were made on cw2 when no one else used the anvil.

    this data goes to show that there is little dependency between one upgrade and the next (although there was a slightly increased chance of a successful upgrade after a failed one).

    i would love to see more ppl post here success rates of other upgrades (like +4 to +5 with bus, or +6 to +7 with trina), so everyone could benefit and manage risk taking with the anvil wisely. please post success rates that you tested and not what you think the success rates are.

    also if someone still thinks that you should always burn shitloads of items before upgrading something important, i would love to hear why you think that, and if it ever worked for you.
    Last edited by Codex; 09-30-2011 at 03:45 PM.

  2. #2
    Senior Member Stalker4Life's Avatar
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    All this is bull shit it's all about luck you can throw 1 Iron impact +8 on the anvil and make it +9, and u can throw 10 II's +8 on the anvil and make 0 +9. It's about ur luck /end of story. ^^>

  3. #3
    To punish and enslave Senior Member Magyk's Avatar
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    U

    cant

    code

    luck.


    RNG doesnt count.

  4. #4
    Senior Member Mishe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Magyk View Post
    U

    cant

    code

    luck.


    RNG doesnt count.
    ofc u can.

    std.rand

  5. #5
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    You know... isnt the anvil code available in the server-sde files? If so, why cant anyone read the code on a private server client? I'm sure it cant be all THAT different from USKO, imean, MGAME is lazy as fuck

  6. #6
    Amuse me Moderator razor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Codex View Post
    some background: i have never understood people who try to burn shitloads of items before upgrading something important, but as so many ppl do it, i thought why not check it out, if its true, maybe it can be used to make some extra money off the anvil.

    in theory, any toss of a coin is not affected by the ones who preceeded it. for instance, if i toss a coin 100 times, and the first 99 times i get heads, the 100th time i toss the coin still has 50/50 chance of heads/tails. now the anvil is no ordinary coin toss, but the same principles of statistics still apply (including the above law of indepedency between two random occurences).

    to test this, i have made alot of high class upgrades which i kept track of to figure out if there is any dependency between one upgrade and the next. here are my findings:

    success rate of upgrading high class items from +2 to +3 with high class upgrade scroll is: 60% (60 out of 100 items went from +2 to +3 and 40 burned).

    success rate after a failed upgrade of high class items from +2 to +3 with high class upgrade scroll is: 65% - 26 out of 40 items went from +2 to +3.


    success rate after a successful upgrade of high class items from +2 to +3 with high class upgrade scroll is: 60% (stays the same) - 36 out of 60 went from +2 to +3.

    i made about 100 upgrades overall so to make this data as accurate as possible.
    the upgrades were made on cw2 when no one else used the anvil.

    this data goes to show that there is little dependency between one upgrade and the next (although there was a slightly increased chance of a successful upgrade after a failed one).

    i would love to see more ppl post here success rates of other upgrades (like +4 to +5 with bus, or +6 to +7 with trina), so everyone could benefit and manage risk taking with the anvil wisely. please post success rates that you tested and not what you think the success rates are.

    also if someone still thinks that you should always burn shitloads of items before upgrading something important, i would love to hear why you think that, and if it ever worked for you.
    but have you tried to keep upgrading after you burn twice? maybe the success % is additive after each burn (60->65->70%)

  7. #7
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    nice observation there razor,
    actually i did, although there were not enough 2 failes in a row (14 out of 100) to base something on it.

    about the anvil code, if someone could get a hold of it and post here the anvil random function, it would be awesome

  8. #8
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    The KO version that leaked (which is what private servers use) is the golden KO , pre Knight Empire patch I believe. Lots of funny things happened in that version of the anvil.

    Digging through the source code for the anvil code will only bring insight as to how it worked THEN. After all the funny events, the anvil is sure to have changed formula, and rumors of this are plenty (I heard part of it is how many items of the + u are making already exist in the server).

  9. #9
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    yes but it can give us an idea about how things are now, even if some things changed, im sure some didnt.

  10. #10
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    you brake few things for variation.of course each upgrade has its own success rate.but think

    if you turn a coin hunderd of times,mathematic theories prove that the result you will find ,will be round 50/50.

    for example.if an item for +7 to +8 has 10% success rate from game,and you upgrade 10 x+7 items ,you (probably) will have made one+8.

    if you upgrade 100.000 +7 to +8 and it really has 10% succes rate,you will get round 10.000 +8 items for sure

    getting one by one the chance for every item is the same.but if you check it as a huge ammount of upgrades,mathematics will be right.

    the problem is that you can't get any clue if you dont make massive upgrades.for example 100000 upgrades.Because mathematics are right for huge ammount of upgrades and generally statistics.
    that's why your result is wrong.


    P.S i know that my english are not so good and i dont know a lot of economic words.but i try explain you what really happends

  11. #11
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    ur numbers are too small.. u cant tell anything for sure from only 100 upgrades. go for 1000-2000

  12. #12
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    Well , his numbers won't be that far off when he goes 1000-2000 , about 8-10% difference at best.

  13. #13
    Senior Member Demeyz's Avatar
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    Taken statistics back in high school, and it teaches that if sample sizes are too small answers are unreliable. Personally I think its all a myth. The anvil probably uses a random number generator and if that number falls into a successful range, the upgrade succeeds.
    For example:
    +1->+2 (Roll 1-100 = success)
    +2->+3 (Roll 1-100 = success)
    +3->+4 (Roll 1-80 = success)
    and so on until
    +9->+10 (Roll 1 only = success)
    And using a trina only increases the range of numbers that it will succeed.

  14. #14
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    itsi 50/50 either u make it or no

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    Senior Member Bloodyrain's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Demeyz View Post
    Taken statistics back in high school, and it teaches that if sample sizes are too small answers are unreliable. Personally I think its all a myth. The anvil probably uses a random number generator and if that number falls into a successful range, the upgrade succeeds.
    For example:
    +1->+2 (Roll 1-100 = success)
    +2->+3 (Roll 1-100 = success)
    +3->+4 (Roll 1-80 = success)
    and so on until
    +9->+10 (Roll 1 only = success)
    And using a trina only increases the range of numbers that it will succeed.
    I agree with Demeyz, just like when you are looting something, it is all based on a six sided die. Every time you open a loot box a die is rolled, and depending on the number you roll, that number is then chose from a list of things that can drop that correspond to that mob that you killed. It may be multiple dice though I'm not sure. Say you kill a booro, and they have a very low chance to drop a shard. When you open that loot box, the game rolls 100 dice, and if 40 of those dice rolled are the number 6, then you get a shard, and the more rare an item the higher number of 6's you must get. It is basically the same thing with the anvil, and if you think about it, a non premium member who doesn't have an increased drop rate is like upgrading something with just a BuS, you don't have any increase success rates. If you buy premium, then you get an increased drop rate, which is exactly like using a Trina.

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