I think your on to the general idea but I'm no statician.

Take a dice with 6 sides, it's a 50% chance of rolling an even number on any give try. Every roll will give you a 50% chance but, what's the chance of rolling 3 odds in a row or 4,5, or higher? So what would be the chance of rolling 100 dice and getting all odds? Much lower than 50%.

Another thing is the anvil does go in cold and hot streaks.

Good Luck testing out your upgrading.

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