There are alot of myths about upgrading, for example, burning items before upgrading the item you want to suceed, or just observing the lights. This is all bogus. Frankly they just piss me off, thats why im writing this.

KO has set of succeeding % for every upgrading lvl. This is a fact. I will show you how big is the chance that with 90% chance succeeding 18 items out of 20 will come through. Also with 80%(16 out of 20), 70%, 60%, 50% till town to 5%.

This is simple probability theory which i don&#39;t feel like explaning, those who don&#39;t understand should pay more attention in school.

Many say that if there is 90% possibility that item will succeed then 18 out of 20 should come through, right? No, every item has a possibility to succeed in the range of 90%, but not all of them together.

P(A)= 18C20 * 18/20^18 * 2/20^2 = 0,282

This means that at the rate of 90% the possibility of 18 items out of 20 will succeed is only 28,2%!!!!

For 80% P(A)= 16C20 * 16/20^16 * 4/20^4 = 0,218
For 70% P(A)= 14C20 * 14/20^14 * 6/20^6 = 0,191
For 60% P(A)= 12C20 * 12/20^12 * 8/20^8 = 0,179
For 50% P(A)= 10C20 * 10/20^10 * 10/20^10 = 0,176
For 40% P(A)= 8C20 * 8/20^8 * 12/20^12 = 0,179
For 30% P(A)= 6C20 * 6/20^6 * 14/20^14 = 0,191
For 20% P(A)= 4C20 * 4/20^4 * 16/20^16 = 0,218
For 10% P(A)= 2C20 * 2/20^2 * 18/20^18 = 0,282
For 5% P(A)= 1C20 * 1/20^1 * 19/20^19 = 0,377

As you can see having enough items does not mean that you will succeed. Yea you may have 20 +7 and the rate might be 5% but you have only 37,7% possibility that one of them goes to +8.

I hope i didn&#39;t make any big calculation mistakes, and it was helpful.

Pedigree.