This is a discussion on About rebirth system !!! within the General Chat forums, part of the Knight Online (ko4life.com) category; Originally Posted by stisus My other cent is that tears state it gives 30 % success rate, and not 30 ...
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1. Originally Posted by stisus
My other cent is that tears state it gives 30 % success rate, and not 30 % points success rate. If they use the terms correctly that means if the success rate of making the item a + higher is say 50% then the tears up it to .5*1.3= .65 = 65%.
I would say that stisus got the point. The math shown here is good i guess but the tears or trina doesnt add 20% or 30%(meaning you just add 20 or 30 numbers), it makes higher the chance by the %. Expample would be the best:

what its said here chance of upgrade is 70% so if you add tears the chance should be 100%

what stisus said and i think its right is: chance is 70%, you add tears and you get 91% chance of succes (70*1,3)

correct me if im wrong

2. Originally Posted by Spelly
I'm a moron? at least learn the correct use of your and YOU'RE before you criticise anyone...
It's already been addressed by Musht and OnlyGods that I was wrong so I don't see the need for YOUR post.
And yes I realise what I said, but I only glanced at the probability of each individual upgrade not the total chance of going from +11 rebirth to +21 rebirth. I haven't done maths since GCSE, think i'm entitled to make a mistake.
Opsey, I forgot this was a gramatically correct forum topic.

3. Originally Posted by Spelly
So the chance of success increases as the level of the weapon increases?
Are you sure that's right?
I think you've worked out the chance of failure...
If it was 88% chance at +11 rebirth there would be a hell of a lot of +21's around.
It's been a while since I did probability but i'd say it sounds more reasonable if you did 1- your success rates.
so +11 rebirth would be roughly 0.12% each uprgrade.
Since we're all bashing each other right now, you do realize that 0.12% is one success every 83 upgrades? This is a flaw in common sense, not math.

4. Originally Posted by thing

omg finally, someone figured it out.

looking at their history... i wouldnt argue in defense of ANYTHING K2/G1 had to say.

5. Originally Posted by stisus
Just my 2 cents, when rofd came out it was also written that the % was equal for all the upgrade steps, meaning its the same probability to go from 1 to 2+ rb as going 8-9 or 20-21 for that mather. Making it a more consistent upgrade system (otherwise it wouldnt be that much point in adding more steps going to say 8-9 + regular.

My other cent is that tears state it gives 30 % success rate, and not 30 % points success rate. If they use the terms correctly that means if the success rate of making the item a + higher is say 50% then the tears up it to .5*1.3= .65 = 65%.

But its k2 so who knows.
Nope, that is a false interpretation of what have been said. I was not said sucess rate is equal to each step. It is said that by using the rebirth system, you have the same probability of sucess that using the non-rebirth system.

6. Originally Posted by Skyrlan
I would say that stisus got the point. The math shown here is good i guess but the tears or trina doesnt add 20% or 30%(meaning you just add 20 or 30 numbers), it makes higher the chance by the %. Expample would be the best:

what its said here chance of upgrade is 70% so if you add tears the chance should be 100%

what stisus said and i think its right is: chance is 70%, you add tears and you get 91% chance of succes (70*1,3)

correct me if im wrong

I think alot about that in the past, and I discovered that it might be correct for trinas. But not for tears. Read carefully what it said in tears description. I really dont think its 1,3. But words in the description can change the things, all depend on what it is written, and how it is written. And yeah lol if k2 have wrote the description it may be false.

7. Originally Posted by thing
Since we're all bashing each other right now, you do realize that 0.12% is one success every 83 upgrades? This is a flaw in common sense, not math.

Well actually if you want to be like that, 0.12% is one upgrade is every 830 upgrades (1/830 *100)... but like I already said I was wrong.

Edit: I realised another flaw in my logic anyway. I did 1- 0.88= 0.12 but didnt turn it back into a percentage, so really its roughly 12% which means 1/8~ not that it matters but meh.

8. Ironic isn't it
Coincidence? Who cares it proves my point

Let's not get off topic anymore

9. Originally Posted by OnlyGods
Nope, that is a false interpretation of what have been said. I was not said sucess rate is equal to each step. It is said that by using the rebirth system, you have the same probability of sucess that using the non-rebirth system.
its nothing about wrong interpretation at all, I just stated what the expansion notes said when rofd came out. but its several years since rofd came out and for all i know k2 have changed it, so lets just agree to disagree.

10. always 50%! Up ur Burn -.-

11. Originally Posted by stisus

But its k2 so who knows.
+1 to that

12. There is only one thing wrong with the math here and it is the assumption that +1 to +2 rb and +2 to +3 rb is the same probably , meaning X1>2 = X2>3.
It doesn't really change the total outcome , just changes the way you think of it while going through it because I don't think each step has the same probability.
Just my 2 cents

13. The dude made a +12 and +13... maybe he's onto something?

14. Originally Posted by coolboyp2
There is only one thing wrong with the math here and it is the assumption that +1 to +2 rb and +2 to +3 rb is the same probably , meaning X1>2 = X2>3.
It doesn't really change the total outcome , just changes the way you think of it while going through it because I don't think each step has the same probability.
Just my 2 cents
This is something possible, but my model is made the most simple way. However, if you do that you gotta have that:

From +1reb to +5reb: 4 upgrades necessaries. If each upgrades have different value, we will need to solve:

a= chance of sucess from +1reb to +2reb
b= chance of sucess from +2reb to +3reb
c = ...
d= chance of sucess from +4reb to +5reb

The we have :
a*b*c*d = 0,05. We got 4 things to solve but only one equation.

If we assume that a,b,c,d are not equal (witch is possible) then they have to be selected to respect the equation in red, witch got infinite possibles solutions. Then it would be almost impossible to implant this into a code to put into the game. If you tryed programming, you'll see that this kind of things is almost impossible except if u set a,b,c,d at specific value with respecting the equation in red (to not make false advertisement).

When implementing a function like that into programming the function should be bijective. It mean that you can find an inverse function, witch is the case here only if a=b=c=d.

15. 86,68% chance of getting you shard+11reb to +13reb

lol are you serious? ive upgraded extensively past +11 and i can tell u this is nothing remotely close to reality

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