I would say that stisus got the point. The math shown here is good i guess but the tears or trina doesnt add 20% or 30%(meaning you just add 20 or 30 numbers), it makes higher the chance by the %. Expample would be the best:

what its said here chance of upgrade is 70% so if you add tears the chance should be 100%

what stisus said and i think its right is: chance is 70%, you add tears and you get 91% chance of succes (70*1,3)

correct me if im wrong

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