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Anvil Autocorrelation

This is a discussion on Anvil Autocorrelation within the General Chat forums, part of the Knight Online (ko4life.com) category; after a long period of upgrading i think anvil has a certain degree of autocorrelation ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Auto_correlation ), basically it ...
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  1. #1
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    after a long period of upgrading i think anvil has a certain degree of autocorrelation (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Auto_correlation), basically it means that a series of upgrades (which can be referred to as a random process), is not entirely random. the chance of success of the current upgrade is dependant in the success of the last upgrade. i know many of you think that no matter how many times you toss a coin and get heads, the chance to get heads in the next toss is still 50%. that is common sense, and it may be true for purely random processes (like a toss of a coin), but in the case of the anvil im pretty sure there is an increased chance of consecutive successes and fails.

    bottom line is: when you upgrade, get a bunch of shitty items and one good item, wait for a success on the shitty item, then immediately upgrade the good item.
    the shitty item should be the same class and same + (like +7) of the good item.


  2. #2
    Brun
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    you have had success doing that?

  3. #3
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    yep, but not with big items, md's, cleavers etc..

  4. #4
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    Damn yeah lets go try it, hold on gotta buy 1 rappy 9 to make my Chitin Shield 10...

  5. #5
    ~SkaNkLeR~ Senior Member griml2eaper's Avatar
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    sweet i can finally take my Maul to +6
    ive been stressing it so much
    im going for it!

    rofl

  6. #6
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    Nothing is "random" it's all human made coding set for "random" chances of success. The Anvil was cracked back in old KO, there was a method very few knew about on how to create any item they wanted ( were using +8 and 9 when +6 was amazing to have )

    Since KE was released, the anvil system was redone and nobody has been able to crack it since then. Could technically still be possible however it wont be figured out, its already been what, 3 years and a few upgrades to the systems since then.

    And the old upgrade method wasn't a fast one either, took awhile to pull off

  7. #7
    mjollner
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    i think everyone already knew that, whether or not they knew the term for it... i have been talking about patterns on the anvil since... well forever, as has everyone else i have spoken to... simple fact is no computerised proccess can currently be genuinly random as they are all based, at some point, on an algorithm

    EDIT: if i wasnt at work i would have posted this first!

  8. #8
    SillyHo
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    There is some truth to it. But I think it has to do more with the theory of probability. Flipping a quarter in succession 100 times says you will get 50 heads and 50 tails. Yet at times there will be multiple of a certain side in a row. As each successive flip is the same, there is a slight increase to the chance it will be the opposite on the next flip.

  9. #9
    Aus Rep Senior Member silentdj's Avatar
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    that is what most ppl are using, but instead of using yor own yellow i wait for someone elses ;p

  10. #10
    1337bOOm
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    in my opinion, it is based on probabilities rather than auto correlation.

    you have 1 dagger +7. taking it to +8, you get let's say whatever the success % is from +7 to +8 in that situation. and let's theoretically say, it is 5%. if you have 2 dagger +7's however, you have a total of 10% getting it to +8, and so on. and this is how i think it works, just my opinion.

  11. #11
    silverbuffer18
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    sweet i can finally take my Maul to +6
    ive been stressing it so much
    im going for it![/b]
    ARE U CRAZY!!! ur lucky to have a +6, i got a crappy +2, dont do it, unless u got some +9 gigas to burn

  12. #12
    agendas
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    Nothing is "random" it's all human made coding set for "random" chances of success. The Anvil was cracked back in old KO, there was a method very few knew about on how to create any item they wanted ( were using +8 and 9 when +6 was amazing to have )

    Since KE was released, the anvil system was redone and nobody has been able to crack it since then. Could technically still be possible however it wont be figured out, its already been what, 3 years and a few upgrades to the systems since then.

    And the old upgrade method wasn't a fast one either, took awhile to pull off[/b]
    I know K2 isn't probably intelligent enough or care enough but if people did start cracking the codes then they could just change the code a couple times a week.

  13. #13
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    I know K2 isn't probably intelligent enough or care enough but if people did start cracking the codes then they could just change the code a couple times a week.[/b]
    Not exactly that simple, K2 can just change any part of KO that they want, one reason why patches take so long to be implemented

  14. #14
    Augustus
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    in my opinion, it is based on probabilities rather than auto correlation.

    you have 1 dagger +7. taking it to +8, you get let's say whatever the success % is from +7 to +8 in that situation. and let's theoretically say, it is 5%. if you have 2 dagger +7's however, you have a total of 10% getting it to +8, and so on. and this is how i think it works, just my opinion.[/b]
    ...lets say there's a probability of 5% for getting +8 that means there's 95% that it will fail, you have 10 +7 cleavers - first one fails so failure % decreases by (5%?) therefore increasing your probability of getting a +8 to 10% and decreasing failure % to a total of 90...if 9 cleavers fail your 10th cleaver would most likely have a 50% of going through and a 50% of failing?

  15. #15
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    mmmm the day I burned 38 +7 FP armors trying to make a single +8 piece back in KE....

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