Anvil Autocorrelation

[FireFlyHolland]

Well when I upgrade for example priest tier 1 set. I bring about 20 to +3 to start with. Mostly the first ones I try to +4 broke. So there is something right about what he says

[DaZeDAnDCoNfUsEd]

I personally feel that instead of items being broken only after X upgrades, the factor of time plays in as well...i looked back in my KO folder from when i played xig and noticed that the 2 +9s I made occured roughly 2 seconds apart from each other (on separate days mind you) time-wise...the second +9 was a test that i tried just to see if it would work and it did..in short the second upgrade occured 24 hours and 2 seconds after the first...

ive also noticed that if you and a friend both upgrade +7s at the same time, and click okay to upgrade at the exact same time, and one passes...the other passes...i found this out while watching my cousin upgrade +7 fabrics with me when he was messin' around and upgrading at the same time as me and we both passed/failed at the same time regardless of the piece (i.e. i upgraded pads while he upgraded cap)

[ashet]

I personally feel that instead of items being broken only after X upgrades, the factor of time plays in as well...i looked back in my KO folder from when i played xig and noticed that the 2 +9s I made occured roughly 2 seconds apart from each other..[/b]

Is there a log of this.
Or did you take screen shots of the success?

[IllExtend]

Whats the deal on upgrading with or without elemental added?

[LightInTheStar]

Whats the deal on upgrading with or without elemental added?[/b]

ppl believe that having elemental fails while upgrading

and clean (i.e. no ele ) is higher success rate

again a personal belief , imo it doesnt matter but its cheaper to put ele at +6 for middle class and low class stuff lol
for high class stuff its cheaper to put at +7 using bes (ud be tearing ur hair out if it fails though , after having gone +7 or higher i.e. )

[aligator]

when i saw this on the wiki pages you gave the link to i stopped thinking about it :lol:

[rodinamo]

i do think braking items ahs something to do with it because ive made 9 chitin set 9 exc II and a lot of 8 hb's

braking 15 items b4 each of thsoe upgrades

[SaNCTe]

An old clannie friend, (who happens to be a computer programmer for the US Army) told me the entire game runs on a system that may seem random, but it in fact is not. Drops from mobs/anvil upgrades/chaotic generator/and anything esle in the game that has a "random" outcome all run on the SAME pattern.

For example, before "Moradon the Resurrection" was released, the NPC for Abyss gems was located near the Anvil. The reason this was moved, was myself (and others i'm sure) figured out that you could manipulate the outcome of the drop from an abyss gem by watching the anvil. Whenever it glowed VERY white, you turned your gem in, and was guaranteed at least FP and up to high class items. I made some decent coins back when chitens were worth alot.

The point is, NOTHING ran by a computer is truly random, I just believe that the ammount of values used in the anvil/drop-rate/chaotic generator was dramatically increased since the last patch.

[bknight]

An old clannie friend, (who happens to be a computer programmer for the US Army) told me the entire game runs on a system that may seem random, but it in fact is not. Drops from mobs/anvil upgrades/chaotic generator/and anything esle in the game that has a "random" outcome all run on the SAME pattern.

For example, before "Moradon the Resurrection" was released, the NPC for Abyss gems was located near the Anvil. The reason this was moved, was myself (and others i'm sure) figured out that you could manipulate the outcome of the drop from an abyss gem by watching the anvil. Whenever it glowed VERY white, you turned your gem in, and was guaranteed at least FP and up to high class items. I made some decent coins back when chitens were worth alot.

The point is, NOTHING ran by a computer is truly random, I just believe that the ammount of values used in the anvil/drop-rate/chaotic generator was dramatically increased since the last patch.[/b]

sorta like that game show whammy, it had like 5-6 different paterns it would switch between across the boxes, one guy memorized all the pattterns and managed to make a nice $107k..and a shitload of trips when most people only made like 5-10k :P.

[Codex]

i know that computers cant generate a purely random process, instead they use an algorithm to produce a pseudo random outcome, this algorithm is pretty good actually, and if it was the case, we couldnt have distinguished a pattern behaviour. you can make a quick program in C or w/e you are familiar with, use the random function and see it has no autocorrelation, that means the last outcome is non depandant in the current outcome, on the other hand the anvil random has a certain amount of autocorrelation that is noticable.

for example, a pseudo random generated by a computer for a 50 50 chance coin toss would look like this:
01001011011100110111001110101010100110101110010011 010111010100101011
the anvil random looks more like this:
11110000000000111100000000000111100000000111111100 000000111111111010000000001111110000000

you get the point

[SaNCTe]

i know that computers cant generate a purely random process, instead they use an algorithm to produce a pseudo random outcome, this algorithm is pretty good actually, and if it was the case, we couldnt have distinguished a pattern behaviour. you can make a quick program in C or w/e you are familiar with, use the random function and see it has no autocorrelation, that means the last outcome is non depandant in the current outcome, on the other hand the anvil random has a certain amount of autocorrelation that is noticable.

for example, a pseudo random generated by a computer for a 50 50 chance coin toss would look like this:
01001011011100110111001110101010100110101110010011 010111010100101011
the anvil random looks more like this:
11110000000000111100000000000111100000000111111100 000000111111111010000000001111110000000

you get the point[/b]

sounds like you and my CP buddie need to get together and crack that shit.

I'll expect a report in my inbox by friday. :P

[ZumieZ]

Ok i will share with mi boys some upgrade tips they all work actually (depends on ur faith tho) :

1.Close your eyes LOL!
2.Look at the screen with eyes wide open
3.ask your mom to click on OK
4.Maintain OK nd count till the day of ur birthday
5.Pray
6.prepare yourself mentally for the loss


----------------

There is another way to solve this problem

bring out all ur shit buy aload of trinas:

Now if the the spirit of the game loves u , u will make a +9 nd bam ur rich , if the spirit doesnt like u u burn all and KO gives u finally a reason to quit

---
I did quit , not planning on coming back , im digusted for real i still have 50GB in gira nd some day i will show up buy loads of +8 as i can ^^ nd go for a +9

[TrueMiRaGe]

no one said yet that, random algoritms are very often time based as the counter provides enough variables to generate a 'random effect'. The upgrade procedure/animation which takes a while can prove it, since like that u cant perform an upgrade every second. I think it is that way since its easiest shit to come with when u are programing, and KO never looked like being made by rocket scientists ; ). Most likely the % of succes for each scrool/lvl of weapon is smth like :
lets say high class item got 50% succes rate +5 -> +6
the timer is counting up from 1-100 (1/sec)
each time the outcome is from 1 to 50 upgrade fails
just need to set a range for any particular class of upgrade
u put in ur items press ok algoritm is checking an universal timer value - it is 39 - u fail

But i guess programmers made it bit more kinky than that to avoid the 50sec succes spams
so it can be like eg. for 5% succes rate just set 5 random numbers eg: 1,34,5,17,85 and mark them as 'succes'
Well guys who made a bit of basic programming will get the point.

thats what i'd made it, because it is:
-easy to change the exact values
-fast
-clear
-as just as it possibly can.

but w/o seeing the exact timer value in real time you cant break it.
Also it kinda explains waiting for red/yellow light before upgrade.

well you can get a friend and perform the same gear upgrade at exact same moment (the outcome schould be the same)
or you can always gather 100 fellows and make a perfect synchro 1/sec each same class/grade item upgrade to get the exact timing^^
---
M1RaGe - Manes /retired hella long ago

[DaZeDAnDCoNfUsEd]

Is there a log of this.
Or did you take screen shots of the success?[/b]

yeah i did SS them because i posted both on koranking to sell w/proof of upgrade...whether or not they will be in the folder is another thing because i uninstalled and /quit_ko about 5 months ago...if they are there ill post them

when i saw this on the wiki pages you gave the link to i stopped thinking about it :lol:[/b]

looks like fun xD...i wonder if i should try and find an algorithm for the new anvil in the beta expansion (when it comes out that is)

I also wonder (assuming the anvil uses a binary numeral system to determine pass/fail)...if the anvil has a 4 digit binary system and assuming this chart holds true (refer to: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binary_numeral_system) working for all values 4 and higher (only because getting to +3 is nearly 100%, therefore the 1 and 2 values would be 97% lets just say up until +3), then if we could determine the percentage to obtain a 1 in such a column, we could in theory determine the probability of upgrade success for that +X value

The number system is set up as such

8 4 2 1
--------
0 0 0 0

Lets say to get to +4, we have a 70% chance, therefore 70% of the time we would get the output - successful upgrade

8 4 2 1
--------
0 1 0 0

and the other 30 would be 0's straight across which is a failure

Going +5 would be a combo of 0 1 0 1 (which adds 4 and 1 to get 5) and the probability would be 97% of 70% which is ~67.9%

moving upward to +6 would result in us using the 2 value (assigning a value of 80% lets just say of obtaining a 1 in the 2 column) to get a rough approximation of 80% of 60% which would be 48% to +6

And finally going +7 would be 0 1 1 1 which is 97% of 80% of 60% which gives us a value of 46.56% success of going +7

_____________________

Now going to +8 since the code would be 1 0 0 0, lets assign a 2% value of going +8

going +9 would result in 97% of 2%, which for some reason makes very little sense since there would be plenty of +9s in the server since it would be very close to +8 (this is the only upgrade level where i might state that going +8-+10 would result in a lower probability of obtaining a value of 1 0 0 1 <-- that final 1 might be like 75%)

and finally going +10 would be 80% of 2% which is 1.6% success to +10...this is a shot in the dark while i skip out on doing my job for a few minutes... all in all...the percent chance of going +8-+10 with this idea would be roughly... 6.208x10^-6 or .0006208 %, which could be increasingly low, but that is using my made up values that i pulled out of thin air

Just my thoughts...it would be an algorithm, but it might be easier to think of it this way...or ill just shut up..either or ^_^

this possibility is using BUS only, no trina, no rebirth, and assuming the rates for low class, middle class, and high class are equal... for trina i would have to think of how it works...maybe take the success rate * 1.2

[Private]

I know K2 isn&#39;t probably intelligent enough or care enough but if people did start cracking the codes then they could just change the code a couple times a week.[/b]

which is why it wouldn&#39;t be talked about