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Go +9 How Many %?

This is a discussion on Go +9 How Many %? within the General Chat forums, part of the Knight Online (ko4life.com) category; damn never gonna upgarde...
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  1. #31
    dojomaster
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    damn never gonna upgarde

  2. #32
    Anime Adicted Senior Member Darktuga's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ko4mylife View Post
    burn is a bullshit....

    i tried once to burn 10 fps +7 before upgrading 11 +8 cleavers with 11 trina and guess what? only 1 from them worked, and it was the 6th or 7th

    thats just random and burn doesn't help

    p.s i also made some +9 items just 1 from 1, with trina w/o burning.. its all random and luck
    i made a maul +9 first item i upgradded.. than relog and went upgrade again and boom burnt all.... im just not lucky at all @anvil i've burnt last week few chittins+7 complete and rap and shard+7 with trina... and 1moth ago i burnt 9 chittin+7/5 ii+7 and 2 rap+7 (no trinas) well... i just got no luck to up(usefull stuff i've made few wolf drops +9 xD)

  3. #33
    Distrax
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    Quote Originally Posted by MushtMan View Post
    go ahead i know probability feel free to post your "proof"
    Lets say that p= probability of sucess and q= probability of fail.

    Then q= 1-p

    Lets X= number of sucess in k try

    Then X follow a Binomial with B(k,p), and its density function is modelised by (k nCr x)p^x(1-p)^(k-x).


    When it time to upgrade +8 or +9 or whatever, it will be a sequence like S,S,F,S,F,F,S and so on. When it come +8, probability of
    succes (p) is low so the sequence may look more like F,F,F,F,F,F,S,F,F,F,S,S ....

    Now, lets X= Number of fail before a sucess.

    Then X follow a geometric distribution and p(x)= p(1-p)^x


    By hypothesis, making a +9 with a trina is about 5% then we have:

    p= 0,05
    1-p = 0,95

    Q: How many burn in a row we need to increase the sucess rate to 18% with a trina ?

    To solve this question we gonna use the expected value of the geometric law witch is:

    E(x) = (1-p)/p

    E(x) = (0,95)/0,05 = 19

    That mean that in general, the first sucess of making a +9 will appair on the 19th try.
    However, we need to consider the radical of the variance:

    Var(x)= (1-p)/p^2

    Var(x)= (0,95)/(0,05^2) =380

    Then the radical is 380^(1/2) = 19,5

    And so, we need something between 0 to 38,5 try to get a sucess with a VERY high rate (nearlly 95%)


    FOR THE +8:

    E(x) = 9

    Radical Var(x) = 9,4

    Between 0 to 20 try to get a sucess.


    AND, we know that sucess and fails of the anvil follow a uniform law of probability i.e.: A sucess will come eventually.

    (like when u wait the bus for 10am and the bus didn't come at 10:03. More you wait, more the probability that the bus arrive is high, and you know the bus will come even if its late, just like the anvil)


    So the more u burn, (more the time pass) higher is the sucess that the next try will be a sucess (more the odds that the buss arrive in the next minute is high)





    So mathematiquelly, it worth breaking stuff before upgrading, and if you still dont understand then..... I kick you in the nuts ;P

  4. #34
    CityWok
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    Quote Originally Posted by Distrax View Post
    Lets say that p= probability of sucess and q= probability of fail.

    Then q= 1-p

    Lets X= number of sucess in k try

    Then X follow a Binomial with B(k,p), and its density function is modelised by (k nCr x)p^x(1-p)^(k-x).


    When it time to upgrade +8 or +9 or whatever, it will be a sequence like S,S,F,S,F,F,S and so on. When it come +8, probability of
    succes (p) is low so the sequence may look more like F,F,F,F,F,F,S,F,F,F,S,S ....

    Now, lets X= Number of fail before a sucess.

    Then X follow a geometric distribution and p(x)= p(1-p)^x


    By hypothesis, making a +9 with a trina is about 5% then we have:

    p= 0,05
    1-p = 0,95

    Q: How many burn in a row we need to increase the sucess rate to 18% with a trina ?

    To solve this question we gonna use the expected value of the geometric law witch is:

    E(x) = (1-p)/p

    E(x) = (0,95)/0,05 = 19

    That mean that in general, the first sucess of making a +9 will appair on the 19th try.
    However, we need to consider the radical of the variance:

    Var(x)= (1-p)/p^2

    Var(x)= (0,95)/(0,05^2) =380

    Then the radical is 380^(1/2) = 19,5

    And so, we need something between 0 to 38,5 try to get a sucess with a VERY high rate (nearlly 95%)


    FOR THE +8:

    E(x) = 9

    Radical Var(x) = 9,4

    Between 0 to 20 try to get a sucess.


    AND, we know that sucess and fails of the anvil follow a uniform law of probability i.e.: A sucess will come eventually.

    (like when u wait the bus for 10am and the bus didn't come at 10:03. More you wait, more the probability that the bus arrive is high, and you know the bus will come even if its late, just like the anvil)


    So the more u burn, (more the time pass) higher is the sucess that the next try will be a sucess (more the odds that the buss arrive in the next minute is high)





    So mathematiquelly, it worth breaking stuff before upgrading, and if you still dont understand then..... I kick you in the nuts ;P

    omg 0.0 ..........to bad i dont get whats really going on or this may have been helpful

  5. #35
    Senior Member bknight's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ko4mylife View Post
    burn is a bullshit....

    i tried once to burn 10 fps +7 before upgrading 11 +8 cleavers with 11 trina and guess what? only 1 from them worked, and it was the 6th or 7th

    thats just random and burn doesn't help

    p.s i also made some +9 items just 1 from 1, with trina w/o burning.. its all random and luck
    ive done a similar upgrade except i think it was with 8 cleavers +8 going to +9 with trina and i burned 8 +7 cleavers with bus. didnt make a single one, got it on vid lol. Done same thing with hanguk swords too going to +8 >.>

    But ive also done the method of putting up some crappy +8 middle class items, some +7 chitin and md7's and what not and then throwing up my big item, and having success which worked for PD+8 and a few others items shard8 etc. Ive done the same thing and had all my items break.

    Breaking stuff calms you down as one guy said i know it does for me, but like the guy above me said the more breaks that go by before you start using your good items the better chance they might have to make one item in the long run.

    Its all about luck to me, but for some reason i feel when im upgrading and i hesitate to do something, or i select the wrong item i meant to select and then switch it it always breaks lol. I look back on the upgrade when im finish and go "dam if only i had selected the right one maybe it would have gone" kind've a stupid superstition or thought but who knows maybe. My advice would be to go with your first actions always. and if you make something stop! lol


    gl hope that helped your confidence.

    ps. having some balls helps too lol, show the anvil your not afraid to throw some money at it and it will repay you.

  6. #36
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    C'mon are you serious? KO programmers can't even implement collision detection, which basically is just, like, coordinate substraction. Substraction! I would rather look to the sky for pigs than hope that KO follow statistical properties.

    There were stories about a guy who went by nickname of Cubed i think, and apparently there used to be a pattern, this guy was rolling in +9 full sets when +7 was baba; true or not true, a few months after hearing about this guy a new patch rolled out changing the anvil code, sometime before ROFD patch.

    Either way, the only probability i believe is that most likely anyone I know and anyone i'll ever meet have made any +9 legitly. It's always a friend of a friend, or someone along those line. Everyone who's honestly tried always says the same thing; ''everything burned''

  7. #37

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    Quote Originally Posted by Goathorns View Post
    C'mon are you serious? KO programmers can't even implement collision detection, which basically is just, like, coordinate substraction. Substraction! I would rather look to the sky for pigs than hope that KO follow statistical properties.
    What you are talking about is a different thing entirely. I believe you are referring to the inaccurate coordinates of the jail system? Or the fact that there is no physics system in game?

    Basically, the jail system was either implemented in two ways. One of them(the most efficient way), is to program coordinates on top of hills/inside buildings. By inserting an if statement like
    if ( 200<x<300 ; 200<y<300)
    player = banned;
    else
    {
    player = notbanned;
    }
    Or, the more non efficient way(which is what i suspect they did), is insert an invisible mesh(3d object) on top of hills/other areas that can only be accessed by wall-hacking. On collision with that object, or by walking within a certain proximity to that object, the player gets sent to jail.
    It's easy enough, and MGAME did get the job done, but they got the coordinates wrong. Because of the lack of testers/GM's they did not know which areas have been accessible without wall hacking since the start of the game. Therefore legit people that were walking on mountains near the graveyard, apostles, and in ardream as well I believe(correct me if I'm wrong), got banned.

    Or...If you were referring to the lack of an actual physics system to sustain the fluidity of collisions, the thing is tons and tons of resources are needed to run a server with 1,500 + people on it AND have a perfectly smooth physics system. My computer runs KO at 15 FPS max as it is...I know my computer's sort of low end but if they added a physics system KO would crash on start up. Also, quite honestly the collision system was implemented well, but was easily beaten by hackers. By manually setting boundaries to their zones without a fluid physics system, it gives hackers easy access to wall-hacking. But, my point is that it has absolutely nothing to do with subtraction.

    Back on topic, the formula that Distrax stated before doesn't make sense to me personally(still in precalc >.>), but the explanation of a pattern in correlation to a set function of probability does make sense. If you ask two brand new TI - 84 calculators for a random integer, then both of the numbers on both calculators will turn out to be the same. The next number would be the same as well.

    For all of you who are clueless:
    If you enter randomint: 1-10 on a graphing calculator
    It will give you a random integer, and if you use the same calculators that are brand new, then the first number of the pattern will be displayed on both calculators.
    So BOTH of the calculators will display(for example) 7 the first time, 9 the second time, 2 the third time, and basically they will be following a function that leads them down the same series of numbers.

    The same would apply to the anvil upgrading ( in theory ). If they DID use a SIMPLE function, then those mathematical properties may apply and you may be able to find a pattern to increase your odds of upgrading successfully. Personally, if I did understand Distrax's method, then I would give it a go. It makes sense that chances can be increased, but since there are different +'s(+8, +9, etc) it can only increase your chances. So there can't be a guarantee at any time that the item will pass the upgrade.

    Anyway...49 posts to go. Constructive enough?

  8. #38
    Haters gonna hate Senior Member MushtMan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Distrax View Post
    Lets say that p= probability of sucess and q= probability of fail.

    Then q= 1-p

    Lets X= number of sucess in k try

    Then X follow a Binomial with B(k,p), and its density function is modelised by (k nCr x)p^x(1-p)^(k-x).


    When it time to upgrade +8 or +9 or whatever, it will be a sequence like S,S,F,S,F,F,S and so on. When it come +8, probability of
    succes (p) is low so the sequence may look more like F,F,F,F,F,F,S,F,F,F,S,S ....

    Now, lets X= Number of fail before a sucess.

    Then X follow a geometric distribution and p(x)= p(1-p)^x


    By hypothesis, making a +9 with a trina is about 5% then we have:

    p= 0,05
    1-p = 0,95

    Q: How many burn in a row we need to increase the sucess rate to 18% with a trina ?

    To solve this question we gonna use the expected value of the geometric law witch is:

    E(x) = (1-p)/p

    E(x) = (0,95)/0,05 = 19

    That mean that in general, the first sucess of making a +9 will appair on the 19th try.
    However, we need to consider the radical of the variance:

    Var(x)= (1-p)/p^2

    Var(x)= (0,95)/(0,05^2) =380

    Then the radical is 380^(1/2) = 19,5

    And so, we need something between 0 to 38,5 try to get a sucess with a VERY high rate (nearlly 95%)


    FOR THE +8:

    E(x) = 9

    Radical Var(x) = 9,4

    Between 0 to 20 try to get a sucess.


    AND, we know that sucess and fails of the anvil follow a uniform law of probability i.e.: A sucess will come eventually.

    (like when u wait the bus for 10am and the bus didn't come at 10:03. More you wait, more the probability that the bus arrive is high, and you know the bus will come even if its late, just like the anvil)


    So the more u burn, (more the time pass) higher is the sucess that the next try will be a sucess (more the odds that the buss arrive in the next minute is high)





    So mathematiquelly, it worth breaking stuff before upgrading, and if you still dont understand then..... I kick you in the nuts ;P
    time for me to translate some of these things to hebrew then i'll read it

    and yes i will understand, i've done a course in probability already

    edit:

    ok i got what you are saying, but why did you even need the binomial part?

    also something i am not sure about... in the geometric distrubution thing where u calculate what is the percentage of succeeding if k have burned, not sure if it is correct to consider a burn of item "A" when u are trying to succeed item "B". burning item A is not burning item B, but i might be wrong... cus what we are calculating here is how many shards+8 do we have to burn for one of them to go +9. but what u are actually gonna do in game is burn lets say 18 items u don't want (which aren't shard+8) and then upgrade your shard+8...

    this reminds me of my cool proffessor
    Last edited by MushtMan; 08-27-2010 at 12:58 PM.

  9. #39
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    im a big believer in burning items before upgrading but 2 of my +9 items made were just random throw ups on the anvil with trina goin +9 and it goes with no burning anything. also i found out if your quiting thats the best time to make +9 items

  10. #40
    Senior Member JoLLyGreenGiant's Avatar
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    man 24 things to +9 jesssussssss

  11. #41
    Thug Life Baybbeehhh! Senior Member SizzleMyNizzle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Swagger View Post
    also i found out if your quiting thats the best time to make +9 items
    lol word...a friend of mine was gna quit and he tried burning all his items in anvil then KAPAAAOOWWW +9 raptor ROFL!!!

  12. #42
    Distrax
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    Quote Originally Posted by MushtMan View Post
    time for me to translate some of these things to hebrew then i'll read it

    and yes i will understand, i've done a course in probability already

    edit:

    ok i got what you are saying, but why did you even need the binomial part?

    also something i am not sure about... in the geometric distrubution thing where u calculate what is the percentage of succeeding if k have burned, not sure if it is correct to consider a burn of item "A" when u are trying to succeed item "B". burning item A is not burning item B, but i might be wrong... cus what we are calculating here is how many shards+8 do we have to burn for one of them to go +9. but what u are actually gonna do in game is burn lets say 18 items u don't want (which aren't shard+8) and then upgrade your shard+8...

    this reminds me of my cool proffessor
    Binomial part is not important, it was just to show the possible outcomes of the anvil in a mathematical approch and link it to a probability model.

    As for considering item A to make B, in the geometic distribution, all events (upgrading) are independents from each others. However yeah if A and B are NOT in the same set it wouldn't be the same. What im trying to do here is to find a way to maximize the success rate, and in a affordable method. Burning shards to make shard is a bit weird and cost alot. Thats why when I perform fails (to upgrades +8), I use FP+7 (they high class at +7, so closer to the set of B) or clevers +7, and not like most wood staff+8... But ur right in that part, it would give more accurate result to burn shard to make shard.... but your clannies would find u kinda weird if u do that lol

    And as I said, the optimal approch is to merge the geometric and the uniform laws together, this explain why burning things is important to increase chances of sucess, and also have an approx. on how many u need to burn.


    Of course you will fail this way too (its not 100% failsafe even if you boosted your odds), however in a long term your expected value will be alot higher on the success items.

  13. #43
    Senior Member KomandoStyle's Avatar
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    2 - 5% with trina

  14. #44
    Shomo
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    It's around 5%,
    Really, tbh It's all just a bunch of luck. If you dont have any $$ in game or real life to buy the item you want, then I wouldn't try for +9.

    Out of my KO Life I had 3 +9 Equip.

  15. #45
    PurEppOwnage
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    Quote Originally Posted by Distrax View Post
    Binomial part is not important, it was just to show the possible outcomes of the anvil in a mathematical approch and link it to a probability model.

    As for considering item A to make B, in the geometic distribution, all events (upgrading) are independents from each others. However yeah if A and B are NOT in the same set it wouldn't be the same. What im trying to do here is to find a way to maximize the success rate, and in a affordable method. Burning shards to make shard is a bit weird and cost alot. Thats why when I perform fails (to upgrades +8), I use FP+7 (they high class at +7, so closer to the set of B) or clevers +7, and not like most wood staff+8... But ur right in that part, it would give more accurate result to burn shard to make shard.... but your clannies would find u kinda weird if u do that lol

    And as I said, the optimal approch is to merge the geometric and the uniform laws together, this explain why burning things is important to increase chances of sucess, and also have an approx. on how many u need to burn.




    Of course you will fail this way too (its not 100% failsafe even if you boosted your odds), however in a long term your expected value will be alot higher on the success items.

    Correct me if im wrong, because im translating math in english to my language.
    but what u are saying is that when a coin has 50% to become head and 50% to become tails, and it was 10 times head it has a higher probability to become tails the eleventh time (because if u do this experiment infinite times it will eventually become 50-50). theres a clear logic behind that. but at a small scale like 19 burns or even honderd burns it will affect the percentage in such a small way that the price of burning even with crap items is never worth it.

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