Go +9 How Many %?

[Shomo]

Honestly, It's Just luck.

[Distrax]

Correct me if im wrong, because im translating math in english to my language.
but what u are saying is that when a coin has 50% to become head and 50% to become tails, and it was 10 times head it has a higher probability to become tails the eleventh time (because if u do this experiment infinite times it will eventually become 50-50). theres a clear logic behind that. but at a small scale like 19 burns or even honderd burns it will affect the percentage in such a small way that the price of burning even with crap items is never worth it.

Yeah thats right. However to be more intuitive you have to see whats the odds of making 10 head in a row.... (0.5)^10 and 11 in a row, (0.5)^11. You translated it good.

But, percentages will be ALOT more affected than you think. And yeah it worth it alot. If you dont think so, do like me and collect over 1000 +7 to +8 upgrades data with bunring items and compare your data to the theory, you'll see.

If people dont wanna thrust this, its their own choice. And there is no Thrust or not thrust in that.... its the way it works point. Burning items will advantage you on upgrading and its a fact, not a question of belieive or not...

Sorry to be a bit rude on that, but I dont know why some people dont thrust mathematics, the only true science (not based on hypothesis ''not including Euclid's axioms'') all other can be destroyed by new theories, but not maths.

[greatone]

I hope people realize that when they upgrade they upgrade on an empty anvil otherwise people steal your burns

[inarco]

Lets say that p= probability of sucess and q= probability of fail.

Then q= 1-p

Lets X= number of sucess in k try

Then X follow a Binomial with B(k,p), and its density function is modelised by (k nCr x)p^x(1-p)^(k-x).


When it time to upgrade +8 or +9 or whatever, it will be a sequence like S,S,F,S,F,F,S and so on. When it come +8, probability of
succes (p) is low so the sequence may look more like F,F,F,F,F,F,S,F,F,F,S,S ....

Now, lets X= Number of fail before a sucess.

Then X follow a geometric distribution and p(x)= p(1-p)^x


By hypothesis, making a +9 with a trina is about 5% then we have:

p= 0,05
1-p = 0,95

Q: How many burn in a row we need to increase the sucess rate to 18% with a trina ?

To solve this question we gonna use the expected value of the geometric law witch is:

E(x) = (1-p)/p

E(x) = (0,95)/0,05 = 19

That mean that in general, the first sucess of making a +9 will appair on the 19th try.
However, we need to consider the radical of the variance:

Var(x)= (1-p)/p^2

Var(x)= (0,95)/(0,05^2) =380

Then the radical is 380^(1/2) = 19,5

And so, we need something between 0 to 38,5 try to get a sucess with a VERY high rate (nearlly 95%)


FOR THE +8:

E(x) = 9

Radical Var(x) = 9,4

Between 0 to 20 try to get a sucess.


AND, we know that sucess and fails of the anvil follow a uniform law of probability i.e.: A sucess will come eventually.

(like when u wait the bus for 10am and the bus didn't come at 10:03. More you wait, more the probability that the bus arrive is high, and you know the bus will come even if its late, just like the anvil)

So the more u burn, (more the time pass) higher is the sucess that the next try will be a sucess (more the odds that the buss arrive in the next minute is high)





So mathematiquelly, it worth breaking stuff before upgrading, and if you still dont understand then..... I kick you in the nuts ;P

+1 to that even if there are some imprecisions.
At least someone with brain out there XD

[PurEppOwnage]

Yeah thats right. However to be more intuitive you have to see whats the odds of making 10 head in a row.... (0.5)^10 and 11 in a row, (0.5)^11. You translated it good.

But, percentages will be ALOT more affected than you think. And yeah it worth it alot. If you dont think so, do like me and collect over 1000 +7 to +8 upgrades data with bunring items and compare your data to the theory, you'll see.

If people dont wanna thrust this, its their own choice. And there is no Thrust or not thrust in that.... its the way it works point. Burning items will advantage you on upgrading and its a fact, not a question of belieive or not...

Sorry to be a bit rude on that, but I dont know why some people dont thrust mathematics, the only true science (not based on hypothesis ''not including Euclid's axioms'') all other can be destroyed by new theories, but not maths.

If i had the money i would defenitly give it a try. But theres is always the fact that u dont exactly know how the anvil is programmed. So u can use all kinds of theories, but u still dont know untill u try and with trying i mean large scale upgrading with and without burn. Then u would how much the difference is and u can conclude if burning items is worth it.

[BigAppleGuy]

the % was a lot better when there was trina bug. Thats when most hi end +9 items were made.

[Distrax]

+1 to that even if there are some imprecisions.
At least someone with brain out there XD

Hahaha Thanks

As an actuary im working with probability all days, so its my strengh.

[Psych]

what i have learned from all these mathematical explanations and theories I finally understood that: IT'S NOT WORTH IT TO UPGRADE ITEMS! Leave that to rich idiots

[Snoxd]

i wish some one would make a hack that you can make the % on your upgrade and then it will work till +8

[SkubaniecPL]

if u want items +9 u maust bay thats

[deathklock]

5% with trina

[Texarkana]

Honestly i think which might be way off. I think the item has a certain number / serial number/ and there is only certain ones that will upgrade. Kinda like playing scratch offs. And only certain pieces will go to a certain level. regardless of trina. Also there once was a cool ass GM that told me Trinas do nothing. But now i think they changed that and now trinas are just for going +5 garanteed. I dont upgrade alot but the last 2 +8 items i made there was no trina. Iron impact +8 and raptor +8.

[diablos13us]

that pic with those straight to +8 scrolls back in those days this scroll could have been duped
which means u buy any items like +0 shells for cheap your only spending money on bus
also this items if you do go to +9 Gm scan would see the item as legal

[kean06414]

Thanks u all telling me about the +9
btw Gay scroll to +8 lol

[wally]

a little bit of luck