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Honestly wtf! is anvil bugged?!

This is a discussion on Honestly wtf! is anvil bugged?! within the General Chat forums, part of the Knight Online (ko4life.com) category; so i boomed 6 pieces of krowaz+6 wiht trina in a row, and not a single fucking one went +7? ...
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  1. #1
    Senior Member casual's Avatar
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    Default Honestly wtf! is anvil bugged?!

    so i boomed 6 pieces of krowaz+6 wiht trina in a row, and not a single fucking one went +7? wtf is up with that? anvil must be bugged lol

  2. #2
    Senior Member NatGeo's Avatar
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    Its just bad luck. 6 aint that much^^

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    Quote Originally Posted by NatGeo View Post
    Its just bad luck. 6 aint that much^^
    if it is u can give me some for free

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    You are just unlucky, many people have succesed without trinas lol

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    Ancient Tribesman Moderator Darken's Avatar
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    I once bummed 14 to +7 in row without trina. When bad row is going on, its better to give uop and try later..

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    Senior Member NatGeo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by parazit1 View Post
    if it is u can give me some for free
    common sense plz

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    anvil is like slot machine in casino you can win big or lost big depend of your luck

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    Senior Member Many's Avatar
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    Yesterday I burned 12x +6 > +7 paper armors lol, just bad luck ;o annoying when it happens with expensive stuff though... been there :/

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    Senior Member Draven's Avatar
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    6 isnt nothing, Bknight.aka Nirvana. He made his retirement video a couple years ago on Cwest.... at end he showed himself trying to make shard8s or cleaver 9s cant quite remember.... but he had like 9-12trinas.... all burned.


    shitty luck brops..... sorry to hear it.

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    Android Man Senior Member E Mon's Avatar
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    lol 6 arent that much...if u wanna real profit then go make krowaz armour parts with around 10gb of items then upgrade all the products in a row to +6 and if you had good luck then go for +7s if you are having more than 2 pieces +6 so you will recover the spent 10gb and get more profit depending on how many parts you got +7

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    Senior Member casual's Avatar
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    boomed 1 more after i wrote that lol, now im done with the uppgrading for a while lol, gotta start saving up cash lol
    Last edited by casual; 12-30-2010 at 07:13 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by casual View Post
    so i boomed 6 pieces of krowaz+6 wiht trina in a row, and not a single fucking one went +7? wtf is up with that? anvil must be bugged lol
    I'm pretty sure trina is just a false advertisement.

    K2 advertises that trina adds 30% to upgrade rate, so going 7>8 should be 35%.

    Here are the probabilities for consecutive burns, given +8 is 5% + the 30% from trina:

    65.00% (1 burn)
    42.25% (2 burns in a row)
    27.46% (3 burns in a row, etc)
    17.85%
    11.60%
    7.54%
    4.90% (7 burns in a row, at this point considered statistically "unusual")
    3.19%
    2.07%
    1.35%
    0.88%
    0.57%
    0.37%
    0.24% (14 burns in a row)
    0.16%
    0.10%
    0.07%

    If you want to know how the math is done, it's basically percent of upgrade to the power of how many consecutive attempts. Since chance of failure is .65 (65%), .65^x.

    Darken isn't the only account, Daddiss also had this (14 in a row) happen with witnesses in a cafe.

    Anyway, that is from a mathematical point of view. I just think K2 is full of shit (big surprise, right?).

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    Legacy Senior Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kenner View Post
    I'm pretty sure trina is just a false advertisement.

    K2 advertises that trina adds 30% to upgrade rate, so going 7>8 should be 35%.

    Here are the probabilities for consecutive burns, given +8 is 5% + the 30% from trina:

    65.00% (1 burn)
    42.25% (2 burns in a row)
    27.46% (3 burns in a row, etc)
    17.85%
    11.60%
    7.54%
    4.90% (7 burns in a row, at this point considered statistically "unusual")
    3.19%
    2.07%
    1.35%
    0.88%
    0.57%
    0.37%
    0.24% (14 burns in a row)
    0.16%
    0.10%
    0.07%

    If you want to know how the math is done, it's basically percent of upgrade to the power of how many consecutive attempts. Since chance of failure is .65 (65%), .65^x.

    Darken isn't the only account, Daddiss also had this (14 in a row) happen with witnesses in a cafe.

    Anyway, that is from a mathematical point of view. I just think K2 is full of shit (big surprise, right?).
    the probablities are not counted in this way. Random walk theory. If you toss a coin and u get 27 consecutive heads, what is the probability of getting tail for the next toss? Its still 50 50.

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    Senior Member fugar's Avatar
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    damn this math is really bugging my head....brings me back to high school math class lol ;(

    anyways sorry about your upgrade fails buuuuuut ED is back sooooo you can get your cash back easier now

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    I am Timmeh Senior Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by wuming1234 View Post
    the probablities are not counted in this way. Random walk theory. If you toss a coin and u get 27 consecutive heads, what is the probability of getting tail for the next toss? Its still 50 50.
    that's right

    Quote Originally Posted by Darken View Post
    I once bummed 14 to +7 in row without trina. When bad row is going on, its better to give uop and try later..
    yeah the anvil has its "mean streaks" ha if u burn alot in a row just stop and try later

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