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Honestly wtf! is anvil bugged?!

This is a discussion on Honestly wtf! is anvil bugged?! within the General Chat forums, part of the Knight Online (ko4life.com) category; The anvil is all percentages... but if you do enough upgrading you can kinda make out patterns as to when ...
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  1. #46
    Senior Member KingHOBO's Avatar
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    The anvil is all percentages... but if you do enough upgrading you can kinda make out patterns as to when the anvil is "hot" and when its not... this could POSSIBLY help you with upgrading. Some times I'll make 20 to +6 (anvil hot) then only make 1 going to +7 (anvil got cold).
    Here are a few recent upgrading I did going +5 to +7 with chitins +5.

    1=upgrade
    0=break

    +5 to +6 | 1111101001100010111010100
    +6 to +7 | 000000001001010100

  2. #47
    Senior Member bknight's Avatar
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    it really is mega random..i remember one day i made 18 fp in a row to +6 lol was fuking ridiculous. (but then most broke to 7 >.>) and another time using crappy high class scrolls i made like 10 items in a row to +3....i know +3 doesnt seem like alot but with those scrolls it really is hard to upgrade passed +2.

  3. #48
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    I was buying chitins +5 for about 3m each over 1 weeks time and had a full inventory going to the anvil.

    23 of 27 pcs went from +5 to +6
    17 of 23 pcs went from +6 to +7

    I almost wet myself. My buddy couldn't believe it and thought I was lying until I asked him to help me trade the items to my merchant account.

    Personally, I find that there is one day of the week that is better than the rest for upgrading. Maybe it's just been lucky for me, but I will take it. Don't pm me to ask which one, I will never tell.

    When it's hot, ride the wave. When it's cold, run like hell.

    However, there are times when I have been pretty pissed and went on a rage-burn. Emotions and the anvil do not mix.

  4. #49
    Senior Member KingHOBO's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by r1ckyb0by View Post
    However, there are times when I have been pretty pissed and went on a rage-burn. Emotions and the anvil do not mix.
    Rage-burns Been there done that, burn a shit ton of gear then get pissed and think "the next one has to upgrade cuz I just burnt 15 in a row" so I go on rage-burns and sent in some good stuff and it all burns

  5. #50
    Senior Member Mishe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kenner View Post
    I'm pretty sure trina is just a false advertisement.

    K2 advertises that trina adds 30% to upgrade rate, so going 7>8 should be 35%.

    Here are the probabilities for consecutive burns, given +8 is 5% + the 30% from trina:

    65.00% (1 burn)
    42.25% (2 burns in a row)
    27.46% (3 burns in a row, etc)
    17.85%
    11.60%
    7.54%
    4.90% (7 burns in a row, at this point considered statistically "unusual")
    3.19%
    2.07%
    1.35%
    0.88%
    0.57%
    0.37%
    0.24% (14 burns in a row)
    0.16%
    0.10%
    0.07%

    If you want to know how the math is done, it's basically percent of upgrade to the power of how many consecutive attempts. Since chance of failure is .65 (65%), .65^x.
    As I see it, trina doesn't add 30% of total percentage (so 30% of 100%), but it adds 30% of the current item percentage (example. if you're upgrading an item +5 to +6 and have normal 50% chance, then with trina you'll have 50% +30% of those 50% so at the end its like 50% +30%X50% = 65%) so basicly that would mean that at +7 to +8 instead of having 5% you have 5.15% -.- so whats the point of using trinas? :/ or maybe I'm just wrong...

  6. #51
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    Unlucky :d

  7. #52
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    i tryed 2 made 1 piece +7 it failed and i made 5 in a row +6:S

  8. #53
    Senior Member DEATHxPROOF's Avatar
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    Anvil is gay, one day i threw a shard+7 with trina went to +8. Couple days later i had 2 +7 FPs they burned, i figured it was cake getting at least one Iron bow to +2 RB, 4 burns in a row, both burned to +2 RB!! :b doesnt seem right. I made a chitin helm from +1RB to +11 RB from +1 to +5 same day. Next week +5 to +7, then from +7 to +9RB and finally +9 RB to +11 RB the next day.

  9. #54
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    Nice input I will think about this next time i do my upgrades, I have never tried upgrades using mathmatic probability calcuations, makes a little sense though.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kenner View Post
    I'm pretty sure trina is just a false advertisement.

    K2 advertises that trina adds 30% to upgrade rate, so going 7>8 should be 35%.

    Here are the probabilities for consecutive burns, given +8 is 5% + the 30% from trina:

    65.00% (1 burn)
    42.25% (2 burns in a row)
    27.46% (3 burns in a row, etc)
    17.85%
    11.60%
    7.54%
    4.90% (7 burns in a row, at this point considered statistically "unusual")
    3.19%
    2.07%
    1.35%
    0.88%
    0.57%
    0.37%
    0.24% (14 burns in a row)
    0.16%
    0.10%
    0.07%

    If you want to know how the math is done, it's basically percent of upgrade to the power of how many consecutive attempts. Since chance of failure is .65 (65%), .65^x.

    Darken isn't the only account, Daddiss also had this (14 in a row) happen with witnesses in a cafe.

    Anyway, that is from a mathematical point of view. I just think K2 is full of shit (big surprise, right?).

  10. #55
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    OP you are actually quite lucky, I have had much worse burn streaks in my past.

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