The anvil is all percentages... but if you do enough upgrading you can kinda make out patterns as to when the anvil is "hot" and when its not... this could POSSIBLY help you with upgrading. Some times I'll make 20 to +6 (anvil hot) then only make 1 going to +7 (anvil got cold).
Here are a few recent upgrading I did going +5 to +7 with chitins +5.
1=upgrade
0=break
+5 to +6 | 1111101001100010111010100
+6 to +7 | 000000001001010100
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