# Are statistics on my side?

This is a discussion on Are statistics on my side? within the General Chat forums, part of the Knight Online (ko4life.com) category; I have 10 Elixer Staffs +8 and ten Trinas. I know that it's about luck I don't want to hear ...
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1. ## Are statistics on my side?

I have 10 Elixer Staffs +8
and ten Trinas.
I know that it's about luck
I don't want to hear that lol.
Are the stats on my side of making a+9?
or should i get more staffs?

I will make a video also

2. i think they are but always keep in mind that u may end up losing everything
maybe u even make 2 elixirs +9 , who knows
i wish u the best of luck anyways

3. I'm worried about losing them.
It was pocket change.
Only 40 gb.

4. 10 more :P

5. Definitely get more.

6. I would go for more too,If u get a +9,sell the rest.

7. Originally Posted by Distrax
Lets say that p= probability of sucess and q= probability of fail.

Then q= 1-p

Lets X= number of sucess in k try

Then X follow a Binomial with B(k,p), and its density function is modelised by (k nCr x)p^x(1-p)^(k-x).

When it time to upgrade +8 or +9 or whatever, it will be a sequence like S,S,F,S,F,F,S and so on. When it come +8, probability of
succes (p) is low so the sequence may look more like F,F,F,F,F,F,S,F,F,F,S,S ....

Now, lets X= Number of fail before a sucess.

Then X follow a geometric distribution and p(x)= p(1-p)^x

By hypothesis, making a +9 with a trina is about 5% then we have:

p= 0,05
1-p = 0,95

Q: How many burn in a row we need to increase the sucess rate to 18% with a trina ?

To solve this question we gonna use the expected value of the geometric law witch is:

E(x) = (1-p)/p

E(x) = (0,95)/0,05 = 19

That mean that in general, the first sucess of making a +9 will appair on the 19th try.
However, we need to consider the radical of the variance:

Var(x)= (1-p)/p^2

Var(x)= (0,95)/(0,05^2) =380

Then the radical is 380^(1/2) = 19,5

And so, we need something between 0 to 38,5 try to get a sucess with a VERY high rate (nearlly 95%)

FOR THE +8:

E(x) = 9

Between 0 to 20 try to get a sucess.

AND, we know that sucess and fails of the anvil follow a uniform law of probability i.e.: A sucess will come eventually.

(like when u wait the bus for 10am and the bus didn't come at 10:03. More you wait, more the probability that the bus arrive is high, and you know the bus will come even if its late, just like the anvil)

So the more u burn, (more the time pass) higher is the sucess that the next try will be a sucess (more the odds that the buss arrive in the next minute is high)

So mathematiquelly, it worth breaking stuff before upgrading, and if you still dont understand then..... I kick you in the nuts ;P

This calculation seems to be good(haven't checked it myself yet) and he explains it very well for laymen. So by using this(if it's working ofc) you'll have 0,18 chance to a success upgrade so by upgrading 10 elixirs, 1,8 of them should be success. By using 20, 3,6 of them should be success. But this is presumption calculation(I hope this is the right phrase ) so it's still possible that each of your upgrades will fail or more will success.

8. well taking 5 % success as well as hypothesis, if u try 10 times u have 60 % chance of having no +9.

9. Last night I bought an iron bow+7, raptor+7, shard+7, and dark vane+7.......and 4 trinas.

I put them on the anvil one after the other. Iron bow....success.....raptor.....success.....shard... ..burn......dark vane.....success. No burn items.

How that for probability?

10. Originally Posted by Tyrion
Last night I bought an iron bow+7, raptor+7, shard+7, and dark vane+7.......and 4 trinas.

I put them on the anvil one after the other. Iron bow....success.....raptor.....success.....shard... ..burn......dark vane.....success. No burn items.

How that for probability?

if i took 15 % rate, the chance for 3 succes and 1 burn is 1.1%

11. Originally Posted by Zwn
if i took 15 % rate, the chance for 3 succes and 1 burn is 1.1%
lol it was kind of a rhetorical question......but thanks for the answer anyway.

12. its all about that little chinese kid pressing yes or no ^^ lol
nah man, i dont think u can say if u will make it or not, its like
some guys burn like a whole inventory...
its about luck i know you dont want to hear it, but it is.

13. elixir +9 is about \$250.00. You invested 40 gb so about \$160.00. Ergo, you need to buy about 5 more staffs/ trinas and one of them will go to +9.
Or just sell everything and pay \$ for a +9 :-P.

Good Luck

14. bro try to up +9

15. let us know how it goes , also what server u doin this on?

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