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SteamKO Anvil rates

This is a discussion on SteamKO Anvil rates within the General Chat forums, part of the Knight Online (ko4life.com) category; Well I honestly think burning items does increase your chances, probably not for the reason you think. Let's say the ...
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  1. #16
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    Well I honestly think burning items does increase your chances, probably not for the reason you think.

    Let's say the upgrade rate is 5% from +7 to +8, statistical regularity will tell you that over a large enough sample that 1/20 would be successful. So for instance if we burnt 19 items +7 we would be expecting one to not burn soon to follow the deviation. It's just another psychological way to look at upgrading obviously it's all RNG based and each upgrade has the 'assumed' 5% someone could burn a million items in a row, or could upgrade a million in a row.

  2. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by zwitter View Post
    Well I honestly think burning items does increase your chances, probably not for the reason you think.

    Let's say the upgrade rate is 5% from +7 to +8, statistical regularity will tell you that over a large enough sample that 1/20 would be successful. So for instance if we burnt 19 items +7 we would be expecting one to not burn soon to follow the deviation. It's just another psychological way to look at upgrading obviously it's all RNG based and each upgrade has the 'assumed' 5% someone could burn a million items in a row, or could upgrade a million in a row.
    but you're not the only one using the anvil it's shared between all players..... if this theory was true, why wouldn't you just wait someone to burn 5-10 items before you upgrade yours? Your logic is broken. I've tried this many times, and it never work even if you burn 50 items it still can burn to +6/+7. it's just superstition, because if you take a look media for example there is people who make full set +9 out of 5 items, while the other burned over 100 items and everything burned to +8.

  3. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by mortal View Post
    but you're not the only one using the anvil it's shared between all players..... if this theory was true, why wouldn't you just wait someone to burn 5-10 items before you upgrade yours? Your logic is broken. I've tried this many times, and it never work even if you burn 50 items it still can burn to +6/+7. it's just superstition, because if you take a look media for example there is people who make full set +9 out of 5 items, while the other burned over 100 items and everything burned to +8.
    It's not a theory it's true, over a large enough sample size the burn rate will be apparent. If you actually knew how to read I said that it was psychological.

  4. #19
    Senior Member TheRealDeALL's Avatar
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    there are some rumors in turkish forums, they specify some rates about upgrading.So

    +1 >> +2 %100
    +2 >> +3 %100
    +3 >> +4 %90
    +4 >> +5 %85
    +5 >> +6 %60
    +6 >> +7 %30
    +7 >> +8 %10
    +8 >> +9 %5
    +9 >> +10 %1
    this is the rates with only bus.

  5. #20
    Senior Member TheRealDeALL's Avatar
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    +1 >> +2 %120---%100
    +2 >> +3 %120---%100
    +3 >> +4 %108---%90
    +4 >> +5 %102---%85
    +5 >> +6 %72----%60
    +6 >> +7 %36----%30
    +7 >> +8 %12----%10
    +8 >> +9 %6-----%5
    +9 >> +10 %1.2--%1
    and this one is with trinas. they say trina adds %20 more.

  6. #21
    Senior Member TheRealDeALL's Avatar
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    But some official said in steam forums that all of the comments about upgrading system are thrash. there is no official upgrading guide and the official said everything in forums about upgrading are lies. he said they cant share the technical details with players.

  7. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheRealDeALL View Post
    there are some rumors in turkish forums, they specify some rates about upgrading.So

    +1 >> +2 %100
    +2 >> +3 %100
    +3 >> +4 %90
    +4 >> +5 %85
    +5 >> +6 %60
    +6 >> +7 %30
    +7 >> +8 %10
    +8 >> +9 %5
    +9 >> +10 %1
    this is the rates with only bus.
    i burned my personal from +3 to +4
    lol

  8. #23
    Senior Member l911l's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by b0ZZ View Post
    i burned my personal from +3 to +4
    lol
    ahahahahahahah. get wrecked.

  9. #24
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    soooo is it undisputed that burning doesn't do anything or are people still wondering lol

    Hasn't there been some Knight Online GM or programmer in the past who quit and has some insiders knowledge

    I think its crazy there hasn't been a leak of it by now

  10. #25
    Senior Member TheRealDeALL's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by b0ZZ View Post
    i burned my personal from +3 to +4
    lol
    like i said, officials said its just a rumour, nothing more...

  11. #26
    Senior Member Diver's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by zwitter View Post
    Well I honestly think burning items does increase your chances, probably not for the reason you think...
    It's just another psychological way to look at
    what?

    Let's say the upgrade rate is 5% from +7 to +8, statistical regularity will tell you that over a large enough sample that 1/20 would be successful. So for instance if we burnt 19 items +7 we would be expecting one to not burn soon to follow the deviation.
    if we're talking about statistics here , then you just picked the wrong distribution model. Your first statement that a large enough sample could tell you 1/20 of Experiments in that Sample IS successful though is correct (Sample must contain alot of experiments)

    It's not like you have a Box filled with 19 red balls and a white one, where you're taking step by step 1 ball out in order to get the white ball (-> probability to pick the white ball increases with every pick you do, since the ratio red/white get's smaller with every failure). In this case we could expect to have a white ball by our 20th pick.
    You should view at it more like playing the lottery: the probability that you pick the right 6 numbers in one game won't increase in the next lottery game you play, in fact, it stays the same and will stay always the same.
    Hope it's clear
    Last edited by Diver; 07-05-2016 at 04:25 AM.

  12. #27
    Adi
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arrow View Post
    Hasn't there been some Knight Online GM or programmer in the past who quit and has some insiders knowledge
    That's because only the game devs (mgame) have such information in their possession and they have no intention of releasing it to the public.

  13. #28
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    Okay what if ko4life community came together on an agreed server and we tried upgrading 100 +5 to +6, then 100 +6 to +7 - etc.

    Record the results and see what % we get. Or is upgrading 100 items to small of a sample size?

    People who offered there +5/6/7 items and donated towards the project can be named under a hall of fame post or some shit. Also after all ugprades try selling it maybe and split money with those who gave up items idk

    would have to be a trusty doing the upgrade but im guessing people wouldn't be willing to contribute to something like this xD

  14. #29
    Senior Member Diver's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Adi View Post
    That's because only the game devs (mgame) have such information in their possession and they have no intention of releasing it to the public.
    Let me tell you something about the Company whose product you're defending for years now
    The source code of KO has been leaked like a decade ago and there are private servers out there with a code quality that MGame can't catch up with.
    KO has been programmed very poorly just like Comboing (what defines KO) was an unexpected bug they could probably only handle by disabling and fucking up more things. Now if MGame would have done their job good and implement the Game they were aiming for(means no Comboing) I'm sure nobody here would be playing this game. Neither you. It wouldn't even last more than 2 years. MGame was very lucky with creating this Bug (among hundreds if not thousands of others) and not knowing how to handle it,
    Another bonus is, they managed to find equally competent license partners (K2/NTT) to host their quality product and having players that would do everything to volunteer for them as a Forum Moderator and keep the complains of their players away from them just for a feeling of being prestige in this superb game

  15. #30
    Polak Extraordinaire Senior Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by Diver View Post
    Let me tell you something about the Company whose product you're defending for years now
    The source code of KO has been leaked like a decade ago and there are private servers out there with a code quality that MGame can't catch up with.
    KO has been programmed very poorly just like Comboing (what defines KO) was an unexpected bug they could probably only handle by disabling and fucking up more things. Now if MGame would have done their job good and implement the Game they were aiming for(means no Comboing) I'm sure nobody here would be playing this game. It wouldn't even last more than 2 years. MGame was very lucky with creating this Bug (among hundreds if not thousands of others) and not knowing how to handle it.
    And having players that would do everything to volunteer for them as a Forum Moderator and keep the complains of their players away from them just for a feeling of being prestige in this superb game
    name 1 ko server with "code quality that mgame cant catch up with"

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