Well I honestly think burning items does increase your chances, probably not for the reason you think.

Let's say the upgrade rate is 5% from +7 to +8, statistical regularity will tell you that over a large enough sample that 1/20 would be successful. So for instance if we burnt 19 items +7 we would be expecting one to not burn soon to follow the deviation. It's just another psychological way to look at upgrading obviously it's all RNG based and each upgrade has the 'assumed' 5% someone could burn a million items in a row, or could upgrade a million in a row.

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