SteamKO Anvil rates

[VinnyCee]

I've always heard that compounding accessories from +0 - +3 was 100% but I can't guarantee that. In my experience, I've never burned any accessories while compounding. As far as I know, the risk is when you go above +3 (this is back in USKO Cypher).

Yes, this is still true.

I've always wondered about upgrading in general.

There are two fundamentally different ways of thinking about it:

1) The upgrading system is completely random (or as "random" as the pseudo-random numbers that are generated by the server can get).

This means that every time one tries to upgrade +7 -> +8, it will be a 10% success rate. This doesn't mean that if you save up 10 items and upgrade all 10 that you will be guaranteed at least one successful upgrade. Like another person said above, one could burn a million in a row or successfully upgrade a million times in a row.


2) The algorithm that defines each upgrade has at least one dependent variable.

This means that some variable about your character (or the environment) is input into the function that determines whether or not an upgrade is successful.

Possible environment variables include: time of day, month of year, premium level, character level, last upgrade success rate (this is where all the faith in the superstitions about "burning" items arise), NPs, items the character is wearing, etc. You get the picture.

I'm sure a lot of little "studies" have been done. Maybe the experimenters recorded their data and posted it somewhere?

[kurtis]

i went 1 to 8 with a cleaver in one shot... i broke 5 shards going +6 in a row....

[Kallop]

Yes, this is still true.

I've always wondered about upgrading in general.

There are two fundamentally different ways of thinking about it:

1) The upgrading system is completely random (or as "random" as the pseudo-random numbers that are generated by the server can get).

This means that every time one tries to upgrade +7 -> +8, it will be a 10% success rate. This doesn't mean that if you save up 10 items and upgrade all 10 that you will be guaranteed at least one successful upgrade. Like another person said above, one could burn a million in a row or successfully upgrade a million times in a row.


2) The algorithm that defines each upgrade has at least one dependent variable.

This means that some variable about your character (or the environment) is input into the function that determines whether or not an upgrade is successful.

Possible environment variables include: time of day, month of year, premium level, character level, last upgrade success rate (this is where all the faith in the superstitions about "burning" items arise), NPs, items the character is wearing, etc. You get the picture.

I'm sure a lot of little "studies" have been done. Maybe the experimenters recorded their data and posted it somewhere?

Could just PM twostars or Aesteris and ask them about it, since they're working with the newest files for any private server and have tons of knowledge regarding things like this. Pretty sure it's #1 tho, because the game has been programmed in a simpleminded, if not a little stupid way.

[dylandy]

Imagine flipping a coin. It may be 50% head or tail, but you may have a VERY small chance that it can land heads or tail 50 times in a row. It's just chance, and the chance for an upgrade to get to a higher level becomes smaller when it gets to a higher level, Example maybe +5-6 is 50 %, 6-7 is 30 % and 7-8 is 10 % but even if you have that %. You can still fail 100x in a row without passing, it's still just a CHANCE.

[PureAlpha]

Upgrading items it's a big gamble sometimes you win and sometimes you loose. Just be humble and expect for the best.

[kriztolized]

+6 to +7 with trina is like 50-70%, +7 to +8 is like 30-50% with trina.

[Ganzah]

+6 to +7 with trina is like 50-70%, +7 to +8 is like 30-50% with trina.

Whatever you smoked, i'm having it!

No but seriously, imagine the shit storm if it turned out that it really was randomized and all them trinas/ tears was all for nothing. Something tells me this is the case

[Kallop]

Whatever you smoked, i'm having it!

No but seriously, imagine the shit storm if it turned out that it really was randomized and all them trinas/ tears was all for nothing. Something tells me this is the case

+1- +6 is 100% with trina as far as I know. It adds 20% extra chance for +7 and probably 5-10% to +8. 2-4% to +9. At least the numbers are something along those lines.

[Rhymes]

+1- +6 is 100% with trina as far as I know. It adds 20% extra chance for +7 and probably 5-10% to +8. 2-4% to +9. At least the numbers are something along those lines.

1-5 is 100% with trina

[erdo1990]

-----trina+B.U.S--only b.u.s
+1 >> +2 %120---%100
+2 >> +3 %120---%100
+3 >> +4 %108---%90
+4 >> +5 %102---%85
+5 >> +6 %72----%60
+6 >> +7 %36----%30
+7 >> +8 %12----%10
+8 >> +9 %6-----%5
+9 >> +10 %1.2--%1

not sure how true that is

[StonedFreerider]

You run faster with high DEX and your upgrade rates are bigger when high INT. Are you guys complete n00ps?

[sleven07]

-----trina+B.U.S--only b.u.s
+1 >> +2 %120---%100
+2 >> +3 %120---%100
+3 >> +4 %108---%90
+4 >> +5 %102---%85
+5 >> +6 %72----%60
+6 >> +7 %36----%30
+7 >> +8 %12----%10
+8 >> +9 %6-----%5
+9 >> +10 %1.2--%1

not sure how true that is

Moral of that story is don't use trinas past +8 lol

[Kallop]

-----trina+B.U.S--only b.u.s
+1 >> +2 %120---%100
+2 >> +3 %120---%100
+3 >> +4 %108---%90
+4 >> +5 %102---%85
+5 >> +6 %72----%60
+6 >> +7 %36----%30
+7 >> +8 %12----%10
+8 >> +9 %6-----%5
+9 >> +10 %1.2--%1

not sure how true that is

It's pretty close to the correct rates. Dunno if +10 is 1% though.

[razor]

I don't think trina only increases a measly 6% and 2% for +7 and +8 respectively.

Upgrade success rate is timebased. But why are normal players using burn method, I don't know, they can't use this method anyway because they are to slow.. Farmers and Highlords use packet response to burn items, if success on a +7->+8 item there is a small time window ~100ms to have any +7->+8 have success. MGame should really change this method, thats why you see so many +9 +10 flooding the market. Enjoy.

This is indeed true.

It feels as if the anvil RNG shifts through favorable numbers for a certain period of time, depending on how likely your upgrade is to succeed.

If your item goes +6, right after your last one burned to +6, it is probably safe to upgrade a bunch to +6 for the next 3-5 seconds. Time threshold gets lower for +7s +8s and so on. Upgrade notices help in this regard too, I think.

[K00]

Sounds like complete garbage too me. Time thresholds? I bet if you had 10 people all on the anvil on team speak and do a count down and you all upgrade at the same time with +7-8 and do it multiple times i bet there wouldn't be a single scenario that all of them would be successful because it was the "correct time threshold".