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About rebirth system !!!

This is a discussion on About rebirth system !!! within the General Chat forums, part of the Knight Online (ko4life.com) category; Ok, I'll post it only once, and I post it only because I am very tired or all bad comments ...
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  1. #1
    Senior Member OnlyGods's Avatar
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    Exclamation About rebirth system !!!

    Ok, I'll post it only once, and I post it only because I am very tired or all bad comments I see when some people pming me about my upgrades. So listen well, because alot dont seem to know how it works. Here is a revelation: ITS NOT 50%-50% !!! Here is how it works:

    Hypothesis:

    +7 to +8 = 5% chance of sucess
    +8 to +9 = 2% chance of sucess
    +9 to +10= 1% chance of sucess


    About 5 years ago, when K2 implemented the rebirth system, it was written on website that the total probability is exactlly the same. For thoses who dont know what it mean, it mean: you got the same outs of doing +7 to +8 as passing from +1reb to +2reb to... to+5reb. It was also write that Tears of Karivdis increase the probability of sucess (rebirth upgrade sucess, not the whole process) BY 30%.

    So here we go, with our basic hypothesis:

    +7 to +8

    Based on k2 statements, we have that:

    +1reb to +5reb = 4 upgrades with the same probability, lets denote this as X, then we have:

    X^4 = 0,05 Isolate X to get:

    X= 0,4728 so 47,28% chance of sucess for each step from +1reb to +5reb

    Add a tears, and each step become: 0,4728 +0,3 = 0,7728, so 77,28% chance of sucess for each step in this range



    +8 to +9

    Based on k2 statements, we have that:

    +5reb to +11reb = 6 upgrades with the same probability, lets denote this as Y, then we have:

    Y^6 = 0,02 Isolate Y to get:

    Y= 0,5210 so 52,10% chance of sucess for each step from +5reb to +11reb

    If you use a tears it become 0,5210 + 0,3 = 0,8210 so 82,10% chance of sucess for each step in this range




    +9 to +10

    Based on k2 statements, we have that:

    +11reb to +21reb = 10 upgrades with the same probability, lets denote this as Z, then we have:

    Z^10 = 0,01 Isolate Z to get:

    Z= 0,6310 so 63,10% chance of sucess for each step from +11reb to +21reb

    And, if u use a tears, it is: 0,6310 +0,3 = 0,9310 = 93,10% chance of sucess for each step in this range



    Dont thrust me? Then better go take some probability courses. I dont know who started the false statement of 50-50% but its not true and the proof is here. The only thing we can discuss here is our basic hypothesis on the sucess rate from +7to+8, +8to +9 or +9to+10, but in the matter I put them very low. If you want, change them and look what it change, you'll be surprised.


    Also as an exemple, if you wanna go with a shard +11reb to +13reb:

    You got 2 upgrades to do at the +11 to +21 rate, so you got: 0,9310^2 = 86,68% chance of getting you shard+11reb to +13reb.



    Bodycult (for the ones who were asking, yep...)
    Last edited by OnlyGods; 04-21-2011 at 02:46 AM.
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  2. #2
    Rinzler Senior Member XApolloX's Avatar
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    lol its 50-50 mr. smarty pants

  3. #3
    Haters gonna hate Senior Member MushtMan's Avatar
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    cool story bruh, i already wrote this like a million times on da forum.

    except that 30% from tears seems b.s

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    Senior Member rambomamboel's Avatar
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    Euh what your mean witch X,Y,Z

  5. #5
    Senior Member OnlyGods's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MushtMan View Post
    cool story bruh, i already wrote this like a million times on da forum.

    except that 30% from tears seems b.s

    Nha, got this 30% from ko website, also I think it still write on PUS

  6. #6
    Senior Member OnlyGods's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rambomamboel View Post
    Euh what your mean witch X,Y,Z
    X = probability of sucess of each step from +1reb to +5reb

    Y = probability of sucess of each step from +5reb to +11reb

    Z = probability of sucess of each step from +11reb to +21reb

  7. #7
    Haters gonna hate Senior Member MushtMan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OnlyGods View Post
    Nha, got this 30% from ko website, also I think it still write on PUS
    I know what it said on the website, it just seems that 30% is too high. i mean they also said that trina was like 30% as well or something like that...

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    Senior Member dugroka's Avatar
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    idk if im reading it wrong or what cuz that math looks totally wrong

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    Senior Member Draven's Avatar
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    i think trinas/tears are placebos.......

    my best upgrades come from buses/rebirth scrolls and holding my balls.......

  10. #10
    Senior Member OnlyGods's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dugroka View Post
    idk if im reading it wrong or what cuz that math looks totally wrong
    Thrust me, there is no error in that lol, its basic probability calculs.

  11. #11
    Haters gonna hate Senior Member MushtMan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OnlyGods View Post
    Thrust me
    How about you spike me instead?

  12. #12
    Senior Member dugroka's Avatar
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    well considering you say its 35% chance with tears to make it to the next level from +1 to +5, the only thing that would seem correct is to divide that 35% chance by the 4 times you have to upgrade it, making it what 8.75% chance that your item will make it all the way from +1 to +5. how do you get like 88.94% chance of it making it? doesnt make any sense

  13. #13
    Senior Member OnlyGods's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dugroka View Post
    well considering you say its 35% chance with tears to make it to the next level from +1 to +5, the only thing that would seem correct is to divide that 35% chance by the 4 times you have to upgrade it, making it what 8.75% chance that your item will make it all the way from +1 to +5. how do you get like 88.94% chance of it making it? doesnt make any sense
    to make it through all the way from +1reb to +5reb, you have 4 upgrades to do at the rate of X, so

    X*X*X*X = X^4= 0,7692^4= 0,3500 = 35%

    30% come from tears (if you use one each step) +5% (our basic hypothesis)

  14. #14
    Senior Member dugroka's Avatar
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    how are you getting .7692? i see no where that number would come from. x^4, so ur taking the 5% chance that each one would make it and that should be divided by the 4 upgrades that you need making it a 1.25% chance that you would make all 4 upgrades successful. your math isnt right

  15. #15
    Haters gonna hate Senior Member MushtMan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dugroka View Post
    how are you getting .7692? i see no where that number would come from. x^4, so ur taking the 5% chance that each one would make it and that should be divided by the 4 upgrades that you need making it a 1.25% chance that you would make all 4 upgrades successful. your math isnt right
    if u havent taken a probability course, don't go posted like u know it all.

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