Ok, I'll post it only once, and I post it only because I am very tired or all bad comments I see when some people pming me about my upgrades. So listen well, because alot dont seem to know how it works. Here is a revelation: ITS NOT 50%-50% !!! Here is how it works:

Hypothesis:

+7 to +8 = 5% chance of sucess

+8 to +9 = 2% chance of sucess

+9 to +10= 1% chance of sucess

About 5 years ago, when K2 implemented the rebirth system, it was written on website that the total probability is exactlly the same. For thoses who dont know what it mean, it mean: you got the same outs of doing +7 to +8 as passing from +1reb to +2reb to... to+5reb. It was also write that Tears of Karivdis increase the probability of sucess (rebirth upgrade sucess, not the whole process) BY 30%.

So here we go, with our basic hypothesis:

+7 to +8

Based on k2 statements, we have that:

+1reb to +5reb = 4 upgrades with the same probability, lets denote this as X, then we have:

X^4 = 0,05 Isolate X to get:

X= 0,4728 so 47,28% chance of sucess for each step from +1reb to +5reb

Add a tears, and each step become: 0,4728 +0,3 = 0,7728, so 77,28% chance of sucess for each step in this range

+8 to +9

Based on k2 statements, we have that:

+5reb to +11reb = 6 upgrades with the same probability, lets denote this as Y, then we have:

Y^6 = 0,02 Isolate Y to get:

Y= 0,5210 so 52,10% chance of sucess for each step from +5reb to +11reb

If you use a tears it become 0,5210 + 0,3 = 0,8210 so 82,10% chance of sucess for each step in this range

+9 to +10

Based on k2 statements, we have that:

+11reb to +21reb = 10 upgrades with the same probability, lets denote this as Z, then we have:

Z^10 = 0,01 Isolate Z to get:

Z= 0,6310 so 63,10% chance of sucess for each step from +11reb to +21reb

And, if u use a tears, it is: 0,6310 +0,3 = 0,9310 = 93,10% chance of sucess for each step in this range

Dont thrust me? Then better go take some probability courses. I dont know who started the false statement of 50-50% but its not true and the proof is here. The only thing we can discuss here is our basic hypothesis on the sucess rate from +7to+8, +8to +9 or +9to+10, but in the matter I put them very low. If you want, change them and look what it change, you'll be surprised.

Also as an exemple, if you wanna go with a shard +11reb to +13reb:

You got 2 upgrades to do at the +11 to +21 rate, so you got: 0,9310^2 = 86,68% chance of getting you shard+11reb to +13reb.

Bodycult (for the ones who were asking, yep...)

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