This is a discussion on About rebirth system !!! within the General Chat forums, part of the Knight Online (ko4life.com) category; Originally Posted by MushtMan if u havent taken a probability course, don't go posted like u know it all. ????? ...
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1. Originally Posted by MushtMan
if u havent taken a probability course, don't go posted like u know it all.
????? posting like i know it all? lol k bro in case you didnt read i asked where he got the number from and said that his math didnt make sense...... where did i say that i knew it all??? exactly.....

"dont go posted like you know it all" nice english

2. Originally Posted by dugroka
????? posting like i know it all? lol k bro in case you didnt read i asked where he got the number from and said that his math didnt make sense...... where did i say that i knew it all??? exactly.....
maybe what i wrote sounded harsh, what im saying is that you're saying his math is wrong, maybe if u wrote, "it doesnt look logical to me" or something like that.

anyways, here's a post i found i wrote ages ago:

Originally Posted by MushtMan
men u iz SO WRONG

let me write this now for the 124013504105245th time.

When you upgrade with tears you have the exact same percentage as if you were upgrading normally but split X ways. (it said on the official website that the chance to upgrade from +7 to +8 is the same as +1 rev to +5 rev)

So if upgrading from +7 to +8 is 5%. The equivalent rebirth upgrade is +1 to +5 rev, which is FOUR upgrades, so here 5% should be the same as upgrading from +1 to +5 rev.

so u split 5% four ways and what do you get? 0.05^0.25 = 47% each reverse upgrade. so now if tears adds 25% u are now up to 72% each rev upgrade which would make it 27% chance to get from +1 rev to +5 rev]

nuff said.

math > u :lol:
to make things clear, split != division.

3. So the chance of success increases as the level of the weapon increases?
Are you sure that's right?
I think you've worked out the chance of failure...
If it was 88% chance at +11 rebirth there would be a hell of a lot of +21's around.
It's been a while since I did probability but i'd say it sounds more reasonable if you did 1- your success rates.
so +11 rebirth would be roughly 0.12% each uprgrade.

4. Originally Posted by Spelly
So the chance of success increases as the level of the weapon increases?
Are you sure that's right?
I think you've worked out the chance of failure...
If it was 88% chance at +11 rebirth there would be a hell of a lot of +21's around.
It's been a while since I did probability but i'd say it sounds more reasonable if you did 1- your success rates.
so +11 rebirth would be roughly 0.12% each uprgrade.
There wouldn't be a hell lot of +21 rev, cus you need to succeed ALL of the upgrades.

let's calculate.

Assumptions

- +9 to +10 AKA +11 rev to +21 rev is 1%

To upgrade from +11 rev to +21 rev you need 10 upgrades.

The percent to upgrade each rev will be 1% split 10 ways, in other words 0.01^0.1 = 63% each rev upgrade.

I'm not gonna go into the tears percentage cus to me tears sounds like bullshit, i don't think it adds 30%.

Anyways each rev upgrade would be 63% chance, but to get from 9 to 10 it would multiply to 1% chance.

5. Originally Posted by Spelly
So the chance of success increases as the level of the weapon increases?
Are you sure that's right?
I think you've worked out the chance of failure...
If it was 88% chance at +11 rebirth there would be a hell of a lot of +21's around.
It's been a while since I did probability but i'd say it sounds more reasonable if you did 1- your success rates.
so +11 rebirth would be roughly 0.12% each uprgrade.

Like Mush said, in order to get an item to +21reb you need to sucess 10 upgrades.

11->12 AND 12->13 AND... AND 20-<21 and if you notice,

0,8894*0,8894*0,8894... (ten times) = 0,8894^10 = 30,97% this is the probability of making a +11reb item to +21reb item if you use tears all the way. remove tears and you get 0,97% chance of sucess.

Thats why there is not alot +10, going all the way is not 88%, its 31%.

6. Originally Posted by dugroka
how are you getting .7692? i see no where that number would come from. x^4, so ur taking the 5% chance that each one would make it and that should be divided by the 4 upgrades that you need making it a 1.25% chance that you would make all 4 upgrades successful. your math isnt right

You dont have to divide anything in that, just solve the equation for X.

X= probability of sucess from one step. We need to find it. We know we need 4 upgrades to make is +5reb.

we know that the total result (+1 to +5reb) = +7 to +8 (from website), but since we need 4 upgrades, we have

X*X*X*X = P(+7 to +8) ------> probability to make +7 to +8 = 0,05

X*X*X*X = 0,05 now solve for X

X^(1/4) = 0,05 or 4th square root of X

then X=0,4729 (almost 50% lol) that is without tears

add a tears and we have 0,4729+0,3 = 0,7729

Thats is the right calcul, you need to add the tears at the end (the 0,3) not in beginning like in my 1st page, little error but dont change alot, i'll edit in a sec

7. Originally Posted by OnlyGods
It was also write that Tears of Karivdis increase the probability of sucess BY 30%.
Your whole argument is under the assumption that +7->+8 or +8->+9 is increased by 30%

Does it specifically say that or could it mean from +1->2 Rebirth, +2->+3 etc

8. Originally Posted by thing
Your whole argument is under the assumption that +7->+8 or +8->+9 is increased by 30%

Does it specifically say that or could it mean from +1->2 Rebirth, +2->+3 etc

Ya corrected the calculs, edited now. From website it say it increase the odd of sucess upgrade by 30%, this is for each step, not from +7 --> +8, it is from +1reb to +2reb.

Edited the calculs, tears have to be put at the end. (good news because it increase the odds)

9. I wanna go get a math course then read this topic

10. I'm sure your math is correct, but let's consider the assumptions.

"when K2 implemented the rebirth system, it was written on website that the total probability is exactlly the same"

did you mean the mgames developers or K2? If K2, I wouldn't have any confidence in what they say. If mgames, it may be their intention to be exactly the same, but maybe their code has errors which does not produce "exactly the same" results

All of the private servers out there and no one has done massive tests / upgrades to document results?

11. Originally Posted by JamesCastle
I'm sure your math is correct, but let's consider the assumptions.

"when K2 implemented the rebirth system, it was written on website that the total probability is exactlly the same"

did you mean the mgames developers or K2? If K2, I wouldn't have any confidence in what they say. If mgames, it may be their intention to be exactly the same, but maybe their code has errors which does not produce "exactly the same" results

All of the private servers out there and no one has done massive tests / upgrades to document results?
Well, im not a programmer, but this is really basic probability. A programmer have certain notion of math, im pretty sure they dont fail in the code, not in something that bring us alot money like the anvil. An error in anvil code can fuck the total game.

12. But why have you so a good luck for make a shard rev +9 to +13 rev and +11rev to +12rev

normal have you 90% cahnge on burns

13. Originally Posted by rambomamboel
But why have you so a good luck for make a shard rev +9 to +13 rev and +11rev to +12rev

normal have you 90% cahnge on burns
Its 93% chance of sucess lol not burns. There is no luck in that, well a bit but not that much.

14. Originally Posted by Spelly
So the chance of success increases as the level of the weapon increases?
Are you sure that's right?
I think you've worked out the chance of failure...
If it was 88% chance at +11 rebirth there would be a hell of a lot of +21's around.
It's been a while since I did probability but i'd say it sounds more reasonable if you did 1- your success rates.
so +11 rebirth would be roughly 0.12% each uprgrade.

Even if it was 99% chance of success, you could still burn 50 in a row, even 100 in a row. Its called probability, the end number of upgrades is endless, could be 1 million burns and 99 million ugrades. Could be 1 burn, 99 upgrades, could be any ratio.

15. So according to your maths, the higher + you go, the higher the chance it succeeds! GG

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