Page 2 of 5 FirstFirst 12345 LastLast
Results 16 to 30 of 65
Like Tree1Likes

About rebirth system !!!

This is a discussion on About rebirth system !!! within the General Chat forums, part of the Knight Online (ko4life.com) category; Originally Posted by MushtMan if u havent taken a probability course, don't go posted like u know it all. ????? ...
Page: 2


  1. #16
    Senior Member dugroka's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Location
    Here, duh
    Posts
    130

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by MushtMan View Post
    if u havent taken a probability course, don't go posted like u know it all.
    ????? posting like i know it all? lol k bro in case you didnt read i asked where he got the number from and said that his math didnt make sense...... where did i say that i knew it all??? exactly.....

    "dont go posted like you know it all" nice english

  2. #17
    Haters gonna hate Senior Member MushtMan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Can't live if you're dead, just sayin...
    Posts
    1,853

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by dugroka View Post
    ????? posting like i know it all? lol k bro in case you didnt read i asked where he got the number from and said that his math didnt make sense...... where did i say that i knew it all??? exactly.....
    maybe what i wrote sounded harsh, what im saying is that you're saying his math is wrong, maybe if u wrote, "it doesnt look logical to me" or something like that.

    anyways, here's a post i found i wrote ages ago:

    Quote Originally Posted by MushtMan View Post
    men u iz SO WRONG

    let me write this now for the 124013504105245th time.

    When you upgrade with tears you have the exact same percentage as if you were upgrading normally but split X ways. (it said on the official website that the chance to upgrade from +7 to +8 is the same as +1 rev to +5 rev)

    So if upgrading from +7 to +8 is 5%. The equivalent rebirth upgrade is +1 to +5 rev, which is FOUR upgrades, so here 5% should be the same as upgrading from +1 to +5 rev.

    so u split 5% four ways and what do you get? 0.05^0.25 = 47% each reverse upgrade. so now if tears adds 25% u are now up to 72% each rev upgrade which would make it 27% chance to get from +1 rev to +5 rev]

    nuff said.

    math > u :lol:
    to make things clear, split != division.
    Last edited by MushtMan; 04-21-2011 at 01:28 AM.

  3. #18
    Member Spelly's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    England
    Posts
    27

    Default

    So the chance of success increases as the level of the weapon increases?
    Are you sure that's right?
    I think you've worked out the chance of failure...
    If it was 88% chance at +11 rebirth there would be a hell of a lot of +21's around.
    It's been a while since I did probability but i'd say it sounds more reasonable if you did 1- your success rates.
    so +11 rebirth would be roughly 0.12% each uprgrade.

  4. #19
    Haters gonna hate Senior Member MushtMan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Can't live if you're dead, just sayin...
    Posts
    1,853

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Spelly View Post
    So the chance of success increases as the level of the weapon increases?
    Are you sure that's right?
    I think you've worked out the chance of failure...
    If it was 88% chance at +11 rebirth there would be a hell of a lot of +21's around.
    It's been a while since I did probability but i'd say it sounds more reasonable if you did 1- your success rates.
    so +11 rebirth would be roughly 0.12% each uprgrade.
    There wouldn't be a hell lot of +21 rev, cus you need to succeed ALL of the upgrades.

    let's calculate.

    Assumptions

    - +9 to +10 AKA +11 rev to +21 rev is 1%

    To upgrade from +11 rev to +21 rev you need 10 upgrades.

    The percent to upgrade each rev will be 1% split 10 ways, in other words 0.01^0.1 = 63% each rev upgrade.

    I'm not gonna go into the tears percentage cus to me tears sounds like bullshit, i don't think it adds 30%.

    Anyways each rev upgrade would be 63% chance, but to get from 9 to 10 it would multiply to 1% chance.

  5. #20
    Senior Member OnlyGods's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Canada
    Posts
    188

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Spelly View Post
    So the chance of success increases as the level of the weapon increases?
    Are you sure that's right?
    I think you've worked out the chance of failure...
    If it was 88% chance at +11 rebirth there would be a hell of a lot of +21's around.
    It's been a while since I did probability but i'd say it sounds more reasonable if you did 1- your success rates.
    so +11 rebirth would be roughly 0.12% each uprgrade.

    Like Mush said, in order to get an item to +21reb you need to sucess 10 upgrades.

    11->12 AND 12->13 AND... AND 20-<21 and if you notice,

    0,8894*0,8894*0,8894... (ten times) = 0,8894^10 = 30,97% this is the probability of making a +11reb item to +21reb item if you use tears all the way. remove tears and you get 0,97% chance of sucess.

    Thats why there is not alot +10, going all the way is not 88%, its 31%.

  6. #21
    Senior Member OnlyGods's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Canada
    Posts
    188

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by dugroka View Post
    how are you getting .7692? i see no where that number would come from. x^4, so ur taking the 5% chance that each one would make it and that should be divided by the 4 upgrades that you need making it a 1.25% chance that you would make all 4 upgrades successful. your math isnt right

    You dont have to divide anything in that, just solve the equation for X.

    X= probability of sucess from one step. We need to find it. We know we need 4 upgrades to make is +5reb.

    we know that the total result (+1 to +5reb) = +7 to +8 (from website), but since we need 4 upgrades, we have

    X*X*X*X = P(+7 to +8) ------> probability to make +7 to +8 = 0,05

    X*X*X*X = 0,05 now solve for X

    X^(1/4) = 0,05 or 4th square root of X

    then X=0,4729 (almost 50% lol) that is without tears

    add a tears and we have 0,4729+0,3 = 0,7729



    Thats is the right calcul, you need to add the tears at the end (the 0,3) not in beginning like in my 1st page, little error but dont change alot, i'll edit in a sec

  7. #22
    Just do it Senior Member thing's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Location
    Floridaaaaa
    Posts
    1,432

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by OnlyGods View Post
    It was also write that Tears of Karivdis increase the probability of sucess BY 30%.
    Your whole argument is under the assumption that +7->+8 or +8->+9 is increased by 30%

    Does it specifically say that or could it mean from +1->2 Rebirth, +2->+3 etc

  8. #23
    Senior Member OnlyGods's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Canada
    Posts
    188

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by thing View Post
    Your whole argument is under the assumption that +7->+8 or +8->+9 is increased by 30%

    Does it specifically say that or could it mean from +1->2 Rebirth, +2->+3 etc

    Ya corrected the calculs, edited now. From website it say it increase the odd of sucess upgrade by 30%, this is for each step, not from +7 --> +8, it is from +1reb to +2reb.

    Edited the calculs, tears have to be put at the end. (good news because it increase the odds)

  9. #24
    Android Man Senior Member E Mon's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Mother of the world
    Posts
    582

    Default

    I wanna go get a math course then read this topic

  10. #25
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Posts
    136

    Default

    I'm sure your math is correct, but let's consider the assumptions.

    "when K2 implemented the rebirth system, it was written on website that the total probability is exactlly the same"

    did you mean the mgames developers or K2? If K2, I wouldn't have any confidence in what they say. If mgames, it may be their intention to be exactly the same, but maybe their code has errors which does not produce "exactly the same" results

    All of the private servers out there and no one has done massive tests / upgrades to document results?

  11. #26
    Senior Member OnlyGods's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Canada
    Posts
    188

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by JamesCastle View Post
    I'm sure your math is correct, but let's consider the assumptions.

    "when K2 implemented the rebirth system, it was written on website that the total probability is exactlly the same"

    did you mean the mgames developers or K2? If K2, I wouldn't have any confidence in what they say. If mgames, it may be their intention to be exactly the same, but maybe their code has errors which does not produce "exactly the same" results

    All of the private servers out there and no one has done massive tests / upgrades to document results?
    Well, im not a programmer, but this is really basic probability. A programmer have certain notion of math, im pretty sure they dont fail in the code, not in something that bring us alot money like the anvil. An error in anvil code can fuck the total game.

  12. #27
    Senior Member rambomamboel's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Location
    Belgium
    Posts
    112

    Default

    But why have you so a good luck for make a shard rev +9 to +13 rev and +11rev to +12rev

    normal have you 90% cahnge on burns

  13. #28
    Senior Member OnlyGods's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Canada
    Posts
    188

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by rambomamboel View Post
    But why have you so a good luck for make a shard rev +9 to +13 rev and +11rev to +12rev

    normal have you 90% cahnge on burns
    Its 93% chance of sucess lol not burns. There is no luck in that, well a bit but not that much.

  14. #29
    Warlord Senior Member TabbyCat's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Southampton, England
    Posts
    1,403

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Spelly View Post
    So the chance of success increases as the level of the weapon increases?
    Are you sure that's right?
    I think you've worked out the chance of failure...
    If it was 88% chance at +11 rebirth there would be a hell of a lot of +21's around.
    It's been a while since I did probability but i'd say it sounds more reasonable if you did 1- your success rates.
    so +11 rebirth would be roughly 0.12% each uprgrade.
    Your a fucking moron!

    Even if it was 99% chance of success, you could still burn 50 in a row, even 100 in a row. Its called probability, the end number of upgrades is endless, could be 1 million burns and 99 million ugrades. Could be 1 burn, 99 upgrades, could be any ratio.

  15. #30
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Posts
    66

    Default

    So according to your maths, the higher + you go, the higher the chance it succeeds! GG

Page 2 of 5 FirstFirst 12345 LastLast

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •