Anvil Autocorrelation

[funkz]

...lets say there's a probability of 5% for getting +8 that means there's 95% that it will fail, you have 10 +7 cleavers - first one fails so failure % decreases by (5%?) therefore increasing your probability of getting a +8 to 10% and decreasing failure % to a total of 90...if 9 cleavers fail your 10th cleaver would most likely have a 50% of going through and a 50% of failing?[/b]

thats wut i hear ppl saying but, put in mind theres others upgrading too. They could go off ur break and u could go off theirs.

[moemoneyman]

I have learned the truth about the anvil aswell. If you burn 10 item in a row, the probability of success for the next item is 89.6 % if the item is below +4. If you burn 5 items in a row, the probability of success for the next item is 12.1 % if the item is above +4. If you burn 10 items in a row, the probability of success for the next item is 42.4 % if the item is a unique item. If you are using a trina, just multiply the estimated success rates by 1.03 in order to calculate the new success rate.

I don't know how accurate these numbers since I basically pulled them out of my ass but I just wanted to put it out there. Good luck!

[Parasitic]

I have learned the truth about the anvil aswell. If you burn 10 item in a row, the probability of success for the next item is 89.6 % if the item is below +4. If you burn 5 items in a row, the probability of success for the next item is 12.1 % if the item is above +4. If you burn 10 items in a row, the probability of success for the next item is 42.4 % if the item is a unique item. If you are using a trina, just multiply the estimated success rates by 1.03 in order to calculate the new success rate.

I don't know how accurate these numbers since I basically pulled them out of my ass but I just wanted to put it out there. Good luck![/b]

Hope some people notice that.

[TheTruth]

lol today i made 2 +7's out of 4 items the rest burned at +6 lol anvil is being nice for once ...all those years of burning at +4

[PedoPriest]

I just close my eyes and hope for the best... seemed to work alright

[dred1491]

it isnt random lol it based on fails and succeses, it based on what ppl upgrading.
it is just based on this code stuff that we dont know thats why we think it is random.
It is also like (Enternet Browser) , when you clean up ur cookies from it,inet seems work better, its about the same in anvil by the end of the day u will have realy low chanses of succes but there is still, and when u do a first upgrades on just restarted server it seems more succes(as i tried, sometimes 3-4 +8 in row), its just my prediction.
But the anvil is hard thing

[tommyleonghk]

I believe if you upgrade something of a higher + or higher grade 1st and later throw in something of a lower + or lower grade, the chance of success would be higher... say for example... throw in your lighting erenion+7 with BUS only and it goes RED...then throw in your hellbreaker+6 with BUS and trina... would give you a higher chance of making a hb+7

[bknight]

your concept happens all the time its nothing knew. i always make 2 things in a row. cleaver9 md8. chit8 md8, pd7 md8. sure alot of people get that...except for the people that stop after there first success pfft..they losing money.

[dred1491]

thats the point i think when u made a +8 item u should put next as fast as u can ^^ many times worked

[Zealous]

Nothing is "random" it's all human made coding set for "random" chances of success. The Anvil was cracked back in old KO, there was a method very few knew about on how to create any item they wanted ( were using +8 and 9 when +6 was amazing to have )

Since KE was released, the anvil system was redone and nobody has been able to crack it since then. Could technically still be possible however it wont be figured out, its already been what, 3 years and a few upgrades to the systems since then.

And the old upgrade method wasn't a fast one either, took awhile to pull off[/b]

Numpad upgade silly. Ah, the days.

[GhostOsiris]

Numpad upgade silly. Ah, the days.[/b]

wats that?

[ashet]

I think Anvil changed.

Used to be red was time to upgrade.

Now its yellow.

Oh and not those faded little yellows bright ones.

[buddah420]

I think Anvil changed.

Used to be red was time to upgrade.

Now its yellow.

Oh and not those faded little yellows bright ones.[/b]

who knows after the new exspansion is out ';x

[soenne]

Nothing is "random" it's all human made coding set for "random" chances of success. The Anvil was cracked back in old KO, there was a method very few knew about on how to create any item they wanted ( were using +8 and 9 when +6 was amazing to have )

Since KE was released, the anvil system was redone and nobody has been able to crack it since then. Could technically still be possible however it wont be figured out, its already been what, 3 years and a few upgrades to the systems since then.

And the old upgrade method wasn't a fast one either, took awhile to pull off[/b]

Good old Lordark eh. Made his elexir +9 and complete set +8 without burning a single thing. Fun times

[phantomlink]

he was one of them, but was reffering more to Cube because thats the only name I could remember at the time