This is a discussion on Honestly wtf! is anvil bugged?! within the General Chat forums, part of the Knight Online (ko4life.com) category; Originally Posted by wuming1234
the probablities are not counted in this way. Random walk theory. If you toss a coin ...
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Thank you for pointing out the consecutive part of it.
Instead of saying something potentially rude to the people who didn't understand I'll try and explain the math quick:
What's the chances of flipping 2 heads in a row?
The probability of flipping 1 head is .5 (50%). The probability of the second heads is also .5 (50%).
To find the probability of 2 heads in a row (two separate events), you use the product rule:
.5*.5 = .25 (25%)
Proof is in the filling, look at the possible outcomes:
{HH, HT, TH, TT} (1/4 are HH)
Now, since we're using the same probability over and over, we can use exponents to make it easier with a calculator rather than multiplying over and over again.
.5^2 = .5*.5
.5^3 = chance of getting 3 consecutive heads or .5*.5*.5 = .125 (12.5%)
Last edited by Kenner; 12-31-2010 at 12:40 PM. Reason: education over flaming, my bad.
Agreed the probabilities are always the same no matter what. Trina may add 30% but theres always risk of failure it could just be lady luck suffocating you with her boobs but then a good thing may happen
One thing that has bothered me for a long time, maybe someone knows the answer?
They say trina is +30%...
is it always extra 30% (lets say +6 > +7 = 20%, then 50% with trina?)
or is it a 30% increase from the old chance (+6 > +7 = 20% ^ 30%? (20%*1,3 = 26%))
if my math even makes any sense haha.. (yes I failed math)
If it always is +30% you would technically only need like 3x +9 items to make an +10 with trina and that seems highly unlikely...
It is advertised as +30%. With the math given, you could figure out how many +9s it would take to have a 99%ish chance of getting a +10 (there is never a 100% chance.)
So if +10 is 0% without a trina, you would need 13 +9s and trinas to have a 99% chance to have a +10. (.7 failure rate to the 13th power equals .97% chance)
True.
Even more true.
The fact remains that if you are "lucky" you can make a +9 withour any trinas and on the first try, and if you are unlucky you can burn 20 +8s with 20 trinas.
You can do the math all you want (i remember some one doing even more advanced math than that and actually ended up with solid proof that burning things did actually increase your chance of succes, he even said that that was the reason why he had made lots of +9s on icantbefuckedtoremembertheserver), in the end if you are on a "bad day" you will burn all your stuff.
Anvil is not to be fucked with unless you are ready to come out empty handed.
Re-read all the explanations I put up and then read this:
Chance of success is 30%, therefore chance of failure is 70% (.7).
Chances of consecutive failure going 9>10:
70.00% (1 failure)
49.00% (2 failures in a row)
34.30% (3 failures in a row)
24.01% (etc)
16.81%
11.76%
8.24%
5.76%
4.04%
2.82%
1.98%
1.38%
0.97% (13 failures in a row)
Now, the probability of failing 13 items with trina in a row is .97, therefore the chance of getting 1 success in there is 99.03%.
Thus:
You would need 13 +9s and trinas to have a 99% chance to have a +10.
You can also say from this data:
You would need 2 +9s and trinas to have a 51% chance to have a +10.
Make sense?
Imao , you guys should be making a topic about this ... U might find out how anivil really works
today
1 krowas +8 (trina)
3 krowas +7 (trina)
5 krowas +6
in kronos
O_o +* items are 5% without trinas holy crap.. i dont understand how i ever made 1 of the many +8 chits/fp and what not lol..
but yea draven way to use me as a example i burned 9 cleaver8's in a row to +9 with trinas and ive had some other bad luck too.
on oldschoolko i got terrible luck also...upgrade rates are different and +8 is max..but i burn everything i take to anvil to +5 when its 75% chance without trina. i just dont understand my luck.
also what kenner is saying is mathematically correct, but is that how the game works? i dont know and i dont think anyone does lol.
KO source is written in C++, so it uses the C random number generator. However, it's not possible to truly throw up a random number with a computer, it has to come from somewhere. Standard practice in programming is to seed the random number generator with system time. Then, you just use modulus to make a number between 0-99. Next, take the upgrade rates from a table in the database. After that, it's a simple conditional statement, if random number is less than or equal to upgrade rate, pass, else, burn.
Technically, if you knew the server time, you could have a 100% upgrade rate all the time, but this isn't feasible for the following reason:
- System time is measured in nanoseconds on most machines.
- You have to calculate your latency to server, and the time it takes server to parse that request in nanoseconds. The time it takes server to parse each request will vary in milliseconds, yet alone nanoseconds, there will be no consistency.
Wish I still had the source code for 1089/1098. Used to develop on private servers a few years back. The server does not store any information from the anvil, and use that to make decisions on future upgrades, that's just a myth. It would be outrageously inefficient.
/end random jargon. :P
Probability doesn't exist.
If you flip a coin, and it lands on heads. It landed on heads.
There was no chance of the coin landing on tails.
Probability is a myth.
all people say burn items (wood +8 chitins fps) before you upgrade work item
but i make much +8 item (raptor shard elixir DV and others) and never burn any item
each person has their rituals
In real life with coins thats right because it comes down to physics (as in: it's determined by how exactly you throw it)
However on a computer it is not determined by physics or whatever so it does come down to some sort of probability.
Anyhow it's obvious kenner actually knows what he is talking about and i doubt he can be proven wrong by anything other than a bigass essay or something.
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