# Honestly wtf! is anvil bugged?!

This is a discussion on Honestly wtf! is anvil bugged?! within the General Chat forums, part of the Knight Online (ko4life.com) category; Originally Posted by TNM In real life with coins thats right because it comes down to physics (as in: it's ...
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1. Originally Posted by TNM
In real life with coins thats right because it comes down to physics (as in: it's determined by how exactly you throw it)
However on a computer it is not determined by physics or whatever so it does come down to some sort of probability.

Anyhow it's obvious kenner actually knows what he is talking about and i doubt he can be proven wrong by anything other than a bigass essay or something.
You're right. I didn't think of it that way.

2. Originally Posted by Kenner

Chance of success is 30%, therefore chance of failure is 70% (.7).

Chances of consecutive failure going 9>10:

70.00% (1 failure)
49.00% (2 failures in a row)
34.30% (3 failures in a row)
24.01% (etc)
16.81%
11.76%
8.24%
5.76%
4.04%
2.82%
1.98%
1.38%
0.97% (13 failures in a row)

Now, the probability of failing 13 items with trina in a row is .97, therefore the chance of getting 1 success in there is 99.03%.

Thus:
You would need 13 +9s and trinas to have a 99% chance to have a +10.

You can also say from this data:
You would need 2 +9s and trinas to have a 51% chance to have a +10.

Make sense?
i can tell u right now that going +10 doesnt have a 30% chance with a trina, not even close

3. Originally Posted by axeman
i can tell u right now that going +10 doesnt have a 30% chance with a trina, not even close
Kind of the point I wanted to originally push other than a bit of education on math and programming. K2 advertises it as +30%, but if you take all of the data given, it doesn't seem right.

4. Originally Posted by Kenner
Kind of the point I wanted to originally push other than a bit of education on math and programming. K2 advertises it as +30%, but if you take all of the data given, it doesn't seem right.
It's probably an addition of 30% of the odd meaning: odd x 1,3 instead of (odd in %)+30%

5. Originally Posted by TNM
It's probably an addition of 30% of the odd meaning: odd x 1,3 instead of (odd in %)+30%

Going to have to agree its probabaly the change of success (5%) x 30% of that that being 6.5% chance of it upgrading...

6. from 6 to 7 take 7 priece and i gurantee u will get 1

for +8 u need at least 25 piece to gurantee it

but somtimes goes with 1 priece

7. Originally Posted by Kenner

Here are the probabilities for consecutive burns, given +8 is 5% + the 30% from trina:

65.00% (1 burn)
42.25% (2 burns in a row)
27.46% (3 burns in a row, etc)
17.85%
11.60%
7.54%
4.90% (7 burns in a row, at this point considered statistically "unusual")
3.19%
2.07%
1.35%
0.88%
0.57%
0.37%
0.24% (14 burns in a row)
0.16%
0.10%
0.07%

If you want to know how the math is done, it's basically percent of upgrade to the power of how many consecutive attempts. Since chance of failure is .65 (65%), .65^x.

Darken isn't the only account, Daddiss also had this (14 in a row) happen with witnesses in a cafe.

Anyway, that is from a mathematical point of view. I just think K2 is full of shit (big surprise, right?).
i dont believe trina gives u 30%.... if it would do there would be thousands of +10 items on server

8. The best way to do it and the best way i did it, is to take a part randomly from +6 you have sealed on you, buy a Bus and press ok to upgrade and for me it works xD i made all my set like that lolz

9. if u ask me its 50:50 . either gonna happen or not

i ve burend to +6 with trina and made +8 without trina. its all up to that green ball of terror. either it will make u happy or not

10. Originally Posted by amrooosh
from 6 to 7 take 7 priece and i gurantee u will get 1

for +8 u need at least 25 piece to gurantee it

but somtimes goes with 1 priece
ive burned more than 7 in a row for trying +7.. sorry ur "guarantees" are worthless

11. got to remember if you have plat or exp premium, It raises your success rate crunch those numbers

12. fck the calculations...

its all about luck and having ballz of steels

13. luck wasnt on your side.... -.-

14. if u dont wanna mess ur head with all the % and stuff just know that everything to +3 is 100% and with trina to +5 is 100% and rest is 50% chance ;P it will show yellow or then it will show red.

15. Originally Posted by squirrelspea
got to remember if you have plat or exp premium, It raises your success rate crunch those numbers

Anvil is unpredictable. I made +7's one day using a method that was almost perfect. Made 4/5 +6 to +7 with the method. The next day I was 0/3.

Ultimately, there is not method. I've seen people throw +6 to +7 w/o trina randomly and make it. One (lucky) guy randomly put 3 CHD +7 w/o trina on the anvil within 1 day and all went to +8. Then i burn everything possible to make a plus 8, and it all burns.

As my clannie says, rub some boobies before u toss it on. It gives an extra 5% chance

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