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Honestly wtf! is anvil bugged?!

This is a discussion on Honestly wtf! is anvil bugged?! within the General Chat forums, part of the Knight Online (ko4life.com) category; Originally Posted by TNM In real life with coins thats right because it comes down to physics (as in: it's ...
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  1. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by TNM View Post
    In real life with coins thats right because it comes down to physics (as in: it's determined by how exactly you throw it)
    However on a computer it is not determined by physics or whatever so it does come down to some sort of probability.

    Anyhow it's obvious kenner actually knows what he is talking about and i doubt he can be proven wrong by anything other than a bigass essay or something.
    You're right. I didn't think of it that way.

  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kenner View Post
    Re-read all the explanations I put up and then read this:

    Chance of success is 30%, therefore chance of failure is 70% (.7).

    Chances of consecutive failure going 9>10:

    70.00% (1 failure)
    49.00% (2 failures in a row)
    34.30% (3 failures in a row)
    24.01% (etc)
    16.81%
    11.76%
    8.24%
    5.76%
    4.04%
    2.82%
    1.98%
    1.38%
    0.97% (13 failures in a row)

    Now, the probability of failing 13 items with trina in a row is .97, therefore the chance of getting 1 success in there is 99.03%.

    Thus:
    You would need 13 +9s and trinas to have a 99% chance to have a +10.

    You can also say from this data:
    You would need 2 +9s and trinas to have a 51% chance to have a +10.

    Make sense?
    i can tell u right now that going +10 doesnt have a 30% chance with a trina, not even close

  3. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by axeman View Post
    i can tell u right now that going +10 doesnt have a 30% chance with a trina, not even close
    Kind of the point I wanted to originally push other than a bit of education on math and programming. K2 advertises it as +30%, but if you take all of the data given, it doesn't seem right.

  4. #34
    TNM
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kenner View Post
    Kind of the point I wanted to originally push other than a bit of education on math and programming. K2 advertises it as +30%, but if you take all of the data given, it doesn't seem right.
    It's probably an addition of 30% of the odd meaning: odd x 1,3 instead of (odd in %)+30%

  5. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by TNM View Post
    It's probably an addition of 30% of the odd meaning: odd x 1,3 instead of (odd in %)+30%

    Going to have to agree its probabaly the change of success (5%) x 30% of that that being 6.5% chance of it upgrading...

  6. #36
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    from 6 to 7 take 7 priece and i gurantee u will get 1

    for +8 u need at least 25 piece to gurantee it

    but somtimes goes with 1 priece

  7. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kenner View Post
    I'm pretty sure trina is just a false advertisement.

    K2 advertises that trina adds 30% to upgrade rate, so going 7>8 should be 35%.

    Here are the probabilities for consecutive burns, given +8 is 5% + the 30% from trina:

    65.00% (1 burn)
    42.25% (2 burns in a row)
    27.46% (3 burns in a row, etc)
    17.85%
    11.60%
    7.54%
    4.90% (7 burns in a row, at this point considered statistically "unusual")
    3.19%
    2.07%
    1.35%
    0.88%
    0.57%
    0.37%
    0.24% (14 burns in a row)
    0.16%
    0.10%
    0.07%

    If you want to know how the math is done, it's basically percent of upgrade to the power of how many consecutive attempts. Since chance of failure is .65 (65%), .65^x.

    Darken isn't the only account, Daddiss also had this (14 in a row) happen with witnesses in a cafe.

    Anyway, that is from a mathematical point of view. I just think K2 is full of shit (big surprise, right?).
    i dont believe trina gives u 30%.... if it would do there would be thousands of +10 items on server

  8. #38
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    The best way to do it and the best way i did it, is to take a part randomly from +6 you have sealed on you, buy a Bus and press ok to upgrade and for me it works xD i made all my set like that lolz

  9. #39
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    if u ask me its 50:50 . either gonna happen or not

    i ve burend to +6 with trina and made +8 without trina. its all up to that green ball of terror. either it will make u happy or not

  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by amrooosh View Post
    from 6 to 7 take 7 priece and i gurantee u will get 1

    for +8 u need at least 25 piece to gurantee it

    but somtimes goes with 1 priece
    ive burned more than 7 in a row for trying +7.. sorry ur "guarantees" are worthless

  11. #41
    Senior Member squirrelspea's Avatar
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    got to remember if you have plat or exp premium, It raises your success rate crunch those numbers

  12. #42
    HumanStupidityIsInfinite Senior Member xtommyleongx's Avatar
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    fck the calculations...

    its all about luck and having ballz of steels

    Last edited by xtommyleongx; 01-05-2011 at 11:16 AM. Reason: add

  13. #43
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    luck wasnt on your side.... -.-

  14. #44
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    if u dont wanna mess ur head with all the % and stuff just know that everything to +3 is 100% and with trina to +5 is 100% and rest is 50% chance ;P it will show yellow or then it will show red.

  15. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by squirrelspea View Post
    got to remember if you have plat or exp premium, It raises your success rate crunch those numbers
    Premium doesn't affect your % on the anvil

    Anvil is unpredictable. I made +7's one day using a method that was almost perfect. Made 4/5 +6 to +7 with the method. The next day I was 0/3.


    Ultimately, there is not method. I've seen people throw +6 to +7 w/o trina randomly and make it. One (lucky) guy randomly put 3 CHD +7 w/o trina on the anvil within 1 day and all went to +8. Then i burn everything possible to make a plus 8, and it all burns.

    As my clannie says, rub some boobies before u toss it on. It gives an extra 5% chance

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